Giving victory to extremists

Beyond the immediate political and media hype and demagogic demonization of any resistance to US and Israeli policies in the region, the core issues are not new. Israel is an occupying power and has so far refused to make peace except on terms acceptable to it, which the Arab public finds tantamount to abject surrender. And the present US administration backs Israel almost unconditionally.

Most Arabs also believe that Israel only understands the language of force, hence resistance is key. This is where Hezbollah comes in as a successful model where Arab regimes have failed. Lebanese resistance to Israel 's 18-year occupation of South Lebanon was a crucial factor in Israel 's withdrawal in May 2000 from that region.

The sudden eruption of the war in Lebanon and the widely perceived steadfastness of Hezbollah in the face of what Arabs see as Israeli aggression has catapulted the party and its leader Hassan Nasrallah into unprecedented prominence on the Arab street. Contrary to the impotent image of Arab regimes, Hezbollah has proved itself capable of handling Israeli aggression. Thus, the longer Hezbollah can hold out against painful Israeli aerial attacks the more embarrassing this will be to Arab leaders.

Interestingly, Arab leaders are seen by the public as American puppets who have no standing on their own. Some even liken them to the medieval Arab princes who helped the Crusaders occupy Arab land. Much of Arab public criticism has been levelled against the leaders of Egypt , Saudi Arabia , and Jordan . They are seen as tacitly supporting the onslaught against the Shi'ite Hezbollah, lest Iran consolidate a tangible presence in the area.

Initial official statements by Saudi Arabia slammed Hezbollah for recklessly provoking Israel to wage a war against Lebanon . The Americans and Israelis saw the Saudi statements as a wink and a nod for the war. The Saudis' recent attempt to pay lip service to the street by condemning Israeli aggression did little to change the initial image of them as docile toward Israel and the United States . Indeed, American sources have emphasized that Arab leaders are only taking a verbal hard line against Israel for domestic reasons; they really support the war against Hezbollah.

Despite the initial reservations of some Arabs regarding the wisdom of abducting the two soldiers, the continuation of the war and heavy Lebanese civilian losses have produced a consensus among the Arab street that Israel is both aggressor and criminal. Indeed, this war has electrified Arab public opinion. For this reason, Hezbollah's relentless attempt to inflict damage on the north of Israel is seen as a legitimate measure of self-defence, especially in the face of the unchecked Israeli offence.

The Jordanian position regarding the latest escalation is very complex and fluid. The regime is widely seen in Jordan as showing understanding for the Israeli aggression. But with hundreds of Lebanese civilians killed by Israel , King Abdullah II has found it more difficult than ever not to condemn Israel . He has, for example, ordered the dispatch of medical aid to the Lebanese. A close look at the Jordanian press from the inception of this latest crisis reveals that the continuation of the war has changed the position of some writers who previously criticized Hezbollah.

Indeed, it is this excessive Israeli use of force that has changed the tide across the Arab world, particularly in Jordan . Initial warnings from enlightened writers and journalists properly indicating that Hezbollah was serving an Iranian agenda have diminished in light of the increasing number of Lebanese civilian casualties. The last straw was when Israel bombed and killed 60 civilians in Qana, invoking the memory of the Israeli attack in April 1996.

The leader of Hizballah made a strategic miscalculation when he failed to estimate the magnitude of the Israeli reaction and American enthusiasm for the war. Yet he has won over public opinion in the Arab world. He has managed to present himself as a decisive and capable leader, ready and willing to fight to the end.

Israel 's perceived military “invincibility” has been shattered in the eyes of the Arab public. Hizballah has struck a severe blow to Israeli morale. It has managed to turn thousands of Israelis into refugees.

There is a commonly-held belief among the public that Hassan Nasrallah will manage to dictate the terms of a ceasefire: there will be a prisoner exchange and Israel will leave the Shebaa farms. Should this happen, Nasrallah can claim victory, even if he has to remove his party deep into Lebanon and dismantle its weaponry. The question whether or not force pays will come to the fore again. The number of people who believe that Israel understands only the language of force will increase.