To err on the side of caution

The memory of the First Hijra (migration) and its place in the roots of Islamic and Ethiopian history is sullied by the declaration of Jihad on Ethiopia by self styled ‘mini-Ayatollahs' such as Sheik Aweys. Hasn't the UIC 's ring leader recited the Holy Koran? Are he and his clique so ignorant of the Prophet's (peace be upon him) stated deep love for Ethiopia ?

We grant the radical extremist elements in the UIC (Union of Islamic Courts) only arrogance as the excuse for their blatant disregard, for the tenets of Islam and the respect it has for fellow People of The Book.

Muslims around the world cringe when they and their great religion are tainted by association through the insane utterances of opportunistic demagogues such as Bin Laden, Ahmedinjan and the Horn's very own megalomaniac-Aweys. Indeed, following the absurd and frankly ridiculous rallies where Ethiopian flags were torched to chants of Jihad!Jihad!, the Ethiopian Muslim community and its leaders lost no time in condemning the provocative actions of the UIC .

If the UIC intends to play the religion card in its design on Ethiopia , it needs to pause and examine Ethiopian history, which is characterized by a closing of the ranks when the greater nation is under threat.

Apart from the un-Koranic behavior of the UIC 's radical elements, the political immaturity of the leadership has led it to reject any and all offers at compromise, even along the lines of Somalia 's national interest. Instead the UIC is bent on imposing its will in a power grab that will only pave the way for even more instability.

The forces of internal division that tore Somalia apart in the early 90s are still within the power structure of that country. It is a pity that the forces of moderation in the UIC , which are the majority, are silenced by the guns of the extremist few. However these moderate voices within the UIC are not to be silenced much longer as their compatriots in the Transitional Federal Government are working night and day in collaboration with the UN, AU, IGAD and frontline states to give the TFG (Transitional Federal Government of Somalia) the muscle it needs to meet its internationally recognized mandate over Somalia .

The August 20 conference of IGAD ministers of defense to be held in Nairobi , should be able to formulate a viable mission plan that would effectively empower the TFG and give the regional peace keeping force its parameter.

The olive branch however still remains aloft for the UIC to abandon its rash policies and work along side the TFG for the good of all of Somalia . Importantly, the UIC must also keep the sovereign soil of Somalia free of jihadist forces from beyond the continent.

As far as Ethiopia is concerned, a united and peaceful Somalia is a preferred neighbor with which future economic, social and even political links could be forged. Ethiopia has no interest in running the perpetual risk of having another unpredictable neighbor.

Predictability is another name for regional stability. Constant situations that breed tension on such a long and porous border naturally concern a major Horn country like Ethiopia . This country of over 88 ethnic groups, many of whom have links with people in neighboring states, has too much at stake and will preserve regional peace at any cost.

The urgency of the matter, coupled with the growing unpredictability in the Horn, may compel Ethiopia to take unilateral action, as it is wiser to err on the side of caution.