It is to be recalled that we launched a series of articles on major
discourses in climate change a couple of weeks back in collaboration
with Aschalew Assefa of the Horn of Africa Regional Environment
Centre/Network, for whom we would like to extend our gratitude once
again. Accordingly, Planet Finite has come up with a second set
of articles on climate change controversies. This week features
the first part.
Climate Change Controversies
Misleading argument 1: Climate change not down to humans
The Earth’s climate is always changing and this is nothing
to do with humans. Even before the industrial revolution, when humans
began pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere on a large scale,
the earth experienced warm periods such as the medieval warm period.
What does the science say?
It is true that the world has experienced warmer or colder periods
in the past without any interference from humans. The ice ages are
well-known examples of global changes to the climate. There have
also been regional changes such as periods known as the ‘Medieval
Warm Period’, when grapes were grown extensively in England,
and the ‘Little Ice Age’, when the River Thames sometimes
froze over. However, in contrast to these climate phases, the increase
of three-quarters of a degree centigrade (0.74°C) in average
global temperatures that we have seen over the last century is larger
than can be accounted for by natural factors alone.
The Earth’s climate is complex and influenced by many things
- particularly changes in the Earth’s orbit in relation to
the Sun, which has driven the cycles of ice ages in the past, as
well as volcanic eruptions and variations in the energy being emitted
from the Sun. But even when we take all these factors into account,
we cannot explain the temperature rises that we have seen over the
last 100 years both on land and in the oceans - for example, eleven
of the last twelve years have been the hottest since records started
in 1850.
So what is causing this increase in average global temperature?
The natural greenhouse gas effect keeps the Earth around 30°C
warmer than it would otherwise be and, without it, the Earth would
be extremely cold. It works because greenhouse gases such as carbon
dioxide, methane, but mostly water vapour, act like a blanket around
the Earth. These gases allow the Sun’s rays to reach the Earth’s
surface but hinder the heat they create from escaping back into
space. Indeed, the ability of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse
gases to trap heat in this way has been understood for nearly 200
years and is regarded as firmly established science.
Any increases in the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
mean that more heat is trapped and global temperatures increase
- an effect known as ‘global warming’. We know from
looking at gases found trapped in cores of polar ice that the levels
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are now 35 per cent greater
than they have been for at least the last 650,000 years. From the
radioactivity and chemical composition of the gas we know that this
is mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels, as well as the production
of cement and the widespread burning of the world’s forests.
The increase in global temperature is consistent with what science
tells us we should expect when the levels of carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase in the way that
they have.
It has been alleged that the increased level of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere is due to emissions from volcanoes, but these account
for less than one per cent of the emissions due to human activities.
Misleading argument
2: CO2 not responsible for global warming’
Carbon dioxide only makes up a small part of the atmosphere and
so cannot be responsible for global warming.
What does the science say?
Carbon dioxide only makes up a small amount of the atmosphere, but
even in tiny concentrations it has a large influence on our climate.
The properties of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide mean that
they strongly absorb heat a fact that can be easily demonstrated
in a simple laboratory experiment. While there are larger concentrations
of other gases in the atmosphere, such as nitrogen, because they
do not have these heat trapping qualities they have no effect on
warming the climate whatsoever.
Water vapour is the most significant greenhouse gas. It occurs naturally,
although global warming caused by human activities will indirectly
affect how much is in the atmosphere through, for example, increased
evaporation from oceans and rivers. This will, in turn, cause either
cooling or warming depending on what form such as different types
of clouds the water vapour occurs in.Humans have been adding to
the effect of water vapour and other naturally occurring greenhouse
gases by pumping greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere through, for example, the burning of fossil fuels and
deforestation. Before industrialization, carbon dioxide made up
about 0.03 per cent of the atmosphere or 280ppm (parts per million).
Today, due to human influence it is about 380ppm. Even these tiny
quantities have resulted in an increase in global temperatures of
0.75ºC (see misleading argument 1).
(to be continued next week)
|