Comment 

What is the point of war with Somalia

It is foolish in the extreme not only to resort to force before necessity compels, but especially to madly create the conditions that will lead to this necessity: Benjamin Tucker, Liberty , May 22, 1886

By Kebour Ghenna

Although it is difficult to understand the intricacies and complexities of Somali politics i.e. clans, factions, moderates, militias, OLF, Eritrea , islamists etc., I believe one can still comment on the general picture impacting the region. And why not start with a generally accepted fact: Somalia is in despair, by virtually any measure. Tragically those who bear responsibility for the ruin in Somalia are Somalis themselves. Enter the new kid in the block: the Islamic Court Unions (ICU) which today controls the majority of Somalia and the vast majority of its population, including Mogadishu the capital of Somalia , and most of the major cities in the country. The ICU is a rival administration to the Transitional Federal Government, with Sharif Sheikh Ahmed as its leader.

The Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in contrast is a shaky 'government' established in 2004 in Kenya and propped up by Ethiopia . It has never asserted itself as a political force despite representing the major clans of Somalia in its parliament. It never took control of Mogadishu ; barely established any power beyond the southern city of Baidoa ; and hardly changed the plight of its ordinary citizens. In short it remains a very weak political entity with very little legitimacy in the eyes of Somali public.

The two parties have their own external supporters. The ICU is held up by several Arab countries including Eritrea (the same old foes as far as Ethiopia is concerned), the TFG by Ethiopia , Kenya and Uganda (fresh and uncommon coalition) and most probably the US , which is concerned about Al-Quaeda. The majority of the population today is under the control of the ICU, which, everyone recognizes, has brought stability and order to the country after years of militia violence. Indeed, the ever-increasing number of civilian casualties has practically stopped since ICU's advent to Mogadishu . Ethiopia is one major direct player on this stage, along with Eritrea . Other Arab countries, including Egypt , Libya are also active players. Ethiopia is said to back the TFG with military 'advisors' and logistical supports. Realities on the ground show, however, that the TFG has not gotten stronger. It remains feckless and marginal. So far, Ethiopia 's military prowess has not made things better. There is fear the two Somali parties may soon head towards confrontation. The threat of the ICU against its rival is real. Moreover the Islamic Court has encouraged the deliberate vilification of Ethiopia , and in the past months has energized the people of Somalia for a 'Jihad'. But will Ethiopia accept the demise of the Transitional Government. The outcome is anyone's guess.

Pity that the talks with ICU and Ethiopia have halted and the war option favored. Not surprisingly, there are serious perils in escalating the crisis. These perils demand a greater appreciation of what can happen if - rather when - violence spread from Somalia to Ethiopia , Sudan (Darfur and South Sudan) Eritrea and beyond. That's why Ethiopia 's interest today lies in negotiating and seeking a comprehensive settlement with ICU and Sharif Sheikh Ahmed. It is also in the interest of the TFG of Prime Minister Ali Mohammed Ghedi and Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed to do the same. This is time to leave the Somalis to their own devices. Their path ahead will not be easy, but they will get there left on their own. The call for 'Jihad' against Ethiopia should not create hysterical reaction on Ethiopians and push the government to initiate military action. Besides going to war at this stage violates one or more of the Just War criteria. Furthermore, in the absence of an imminent attack the choice of preemptive attack, which seems to be favored by the government, may not be suitable in a case where one expects the conflict to last in time. Hence, the call to this government: act wisely and seek practical, non-violent solutions to the conflicts. Is this a sensible call? You bet it is. Let's be honest, who are the Ethiopian troops protecting inside Somalia ? The Somali people? Ethiopia cannot impose the TFG on the people of Somalia ; it cannot forcefully hold the Islamic Court at bay indefinitely; it cannot really produce 'victory' or 'success' and install the 'right' government in Mogadishu . The Islamic Union can't be wished away by military means. It enjoys wide support by Somalis themselves for stopping the long running violence; it is today in a position to rally the country under its common rule to resist outside aggressors. Aren't we witnessing today that no amount of troops or fighter helicopters or democracy shot out of the barrel of a gun is ever going to "win" a war.

The Ethiopian government may be right to perceive the current crisis in Somalia as a threat to its sovereignty. But still, it should not rush into war. Instead it should first insist that the TFG deal with the Islamic Court on its own. True, our leaders may have psychological inhibitions to cutting their links with the TFG, but that is the only pragmatic way to resolving the conflict in the region. This action is merely a first step. Here are other initiatives to avoid unnecessary bloodshed and bring hope to the region:

* Recognize ICU's de facto government and change our old policies to bring more dynamic cooperation and peace in Somalia .

* Bring back our military 'advisors' and persuade the TFG to negotiate with ICU on the future of Somalia ; this is the right thing to do.

* Demand that the ICU or any force in Somalia desist from any aggressive stand against Ethiopia .

* Sign a cooperation agreement to bring the people of Somalia and Ethiopia closer to one another.

* Review the government's policy on engaging all oppositions, whatever their fancy.

Ethiopia is in a no-win situation for favoring war and for tying its interest with the TFG, a party perceived by the Somalis public as not defending their interests. Yes, Ethiopia has the fire power and the tacit support of the US (for now), but we all have learnt (and continue to learn) this is not enough to bring conflicts to end. Of all countries, Ethiopia should not believe in war with Somalia - a country with which we share part of our soul. Ethiopia is constituted with an important region inhabited and governed by Somalis who share their culture, language, and religion with Somalia . Let's use our wisdom and start working on political compromises and winning peace. One word of cautious: by closing the doors of participation to the ICU, it is a question of time before it (the ICU) finds a segment, say among the opposition in the Somali regional administration that defer from Ethiopia's policy, to cooperate and communicate with. Finally, by seeking parliamentary power to conduct military action to solve the Somali conflict, I am afraid the government may have underpinned its decision on political choice instead of national security necessity. Is this is a gamble worth taking?