(Continued from last
week)
Finding Solutions for Environmental problems
Fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of energy for decades
to come. So, in the battle against greenhouse gas emissions, reducing
CO2 in the fossil fuels chain, especially with regard to coal, will
be crucial.
That is why CO2 capture and storage, or CCS, could become important.
This process involves separating CO2 from industrial and energy
sources. And it requires transporting it to a storage location and
injecting it into geological formations for the purpose of keeping
it out of the atmosphere for the long term.
Another solution pathway is to stimulate the growth of alternative
energy.
The share of renewables in the global energy mix could go up from
its current very low base of about 1% to about 30% by the middle
of the century.
The number of wind turbines, for instance, may grow from about 30,000
today to one million and their capacity will be significantly larger
than the ones we have built so far.
The cost of wind energy has dropped by more than 80% over the last
two decades, in large part because turbine capacity has increased
by a factor of 50 over the last 20 years.
Wind parks can also be built in remote areas with harsh conditions.
In Europe, the trend is for more offshore wind parks, because that
is where space is more abundant and the wind tends to be stronger.
In the United States, the trend is towards large-scale onshore projects.
Wind turbines, of course, don’t produce electricity when there
is no wind. That problem will be addressed when technological improvements
allow us to store excess power in cost-effective ways. Solar energy
is relatively clean, but it is still expensive and not competitive
without subsidies. And solar panels require a large area to collect
solar energy in useful quantities, because of their relatively low
energy efficiency.
For instance, if one fitted 20 million roofs in Northwest Europe
each with 4.2 meters of standard silicon-based solar panels, this
would generate less full time equivalent power than a typical power
station fired by gas or coal.
However, next generation CIS thin film technology has lower production
costs and uses 100 times less raw materials than silicon based solar
panels. Not a bad thing in a resource-constrained world.
Regarding nuclear energy, without going into too much detail, experts
tell us that the world will probably need more, rather than less,
nuclear energy during the transition period from a high-carbon to
a lower carbon energy system.
Einstein said that problems need to be solved at different levels
of awareness that created them. That is certainly true, but in the
energy industry, investments are worth many billions and are made
for decades. You don’t build a power plant only to tear it
down because your level of awareness has changed.
The integration of new technology takes a long time, too. In the
consumer goods industry, the lead-time between a new idea and commercial
application of a product is roughly five years. In the energy industry,
historically, this has taken around 20 years.
This may be one of the reasons why young scientists and engineers
are not immediately drawn to a career in the energy industry. That
has to change. We will need many good brains, and many good partnerships
with academics and scientists, to make a successful energy transition
possible. Without energy, the machine stops.
For big companies such as Royal Dutch Shell, that translates into
constant innovation sometimes revolutionary innovation. Back in
1892, a Shell tanker called the Murex shipped kerosene from Baku
to Bangkok, reducing the distance for Russian crude deliveries to
the Far East by thousands of kilometres.
Industry will have to play its role in turning discoveries into
usable concepts and products through testing and commercialization
— in partnership with the scientific community. Consumers
will have to become more aware of the value of energy and the need
to use it sparingly.
Together, we form a global society. And that global society will
shape future technology and choose solution pathways, rather than
the other way around.
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