Bulwark in stormy climes

Like a cone of vanilla ice cream left in the sun too long, the polar icecaps are melting at a rate that has alarmed even the most ardent critics of the global environmental movement.
Climate change is no longer disputable. It is upon us already, its frequency and impacts will accelerate and if we are to survive as a viable species - with a semblance of civilized existence urgent and radical mechanisms have to be rolled out to mitigate the impact of inevitable climate change events over the next several decades.
On the frontline, indeed the epicenter of global environmental and climate change science is Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, head of the IPCC, co-winner along with former U.S. Vice president Al Gore of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, and Director General of the Energy and Resources Institute of India, TERI, which recently signed a memorandum of understanding with the UN-ECA to set up the UNECA- TERI African Center for Climate Change Policy Studies, AC3PS.
Capital's Tesfu Telahun had the privilege to meet the Nobel Laureate scientist. Excerpts:

Capital: - You are, along with former U.S. vice-president Al Gore, a recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. What has this prize meant to you personally and to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which you have been heading since 2002?
Dr.R.K Pachauri: - For the IPCC it has been a case of final recognition of the value of the work of a large scientific community. This is a collective effort and the fact the IPCC was awarded the peace prize is an acknowledgment of its valuable work. It is a source of great encouragement and deep satisfaction for all the scientists who have worked in this field for many years. Personally, I feel what we have done in the last six years, has made an impact, and in such a manner that the Norwegian Nobel Committee has recognized that it should be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
Of course, this has led to enormous demands on my time as I get a lot of invitations from all parts of the world, requesting me to speak at functions. I have appeared before the US. Senate and congressional committees dealing with environmental issues and related areas, in an effort to convince them that the science is compelling, the problem is serious and that the United States has to lead.
In the course of my work, I meet many world leaders and try to give them whatever knowledge has come out of IPCC reports so that they realize that action must be taken. I feel that the Nobel Peace Prize has imposed demands on my time but is also giving me excellent opportunities that I am trying to make use of.

Capital: - What would you describe as among the outstanding achievements of the IPCC?
Dr. Pachauri: - One quite notable achievement of the IPCC is that we have established a process for carrying out assessment for climate change which is transparent, inclusive and very objective. The process involves the best scientific minds from all over the world. It is therefore an organization that brings to bear on the work that it does, the highest standards available in the world. The other unique feature the IPCC has been able to achieve is the fact that all our reports and the summary for policy makers have to be approved by all the governments of the world. That approval is obtained literally after word for word scrutiny.
So that is a very difficult process. Imagine the different viewpoints when 130 or more nations meet to deliberate on the summary for policy makers. The benefit of going through that process is that once you have final approval, then all the governments are committed to the findings of the report. Therefore, I would say that this has been one of the IPCC’s major achievements – establishing a process that is transparent, objective and all embracing. It has high credibility, because of the level of scientific excellence involved in the effort and getting the approval of world governments by consensus.

Capital: - If I may go to the African context. This continent as well as other least developed areas, seems to be … condemned I guess; though not at all guilty, to suffer most from climate change. What should be done to mitigate this ironic tragedy… is compensation due to Africa from the true culprits – the developed nations?
Dr. Pachauri: - I think that is entirely true and it’s very unfortunate that while Africa is hardly responsible for the problem, the worst impacts of climate change are going to be felt in Africa. And yes there is an issue of equity and ethics at the global level which as you rightly said, should require some form of compensation. At a minimum, I think it is very important that the rest of the world and particularly developed nations must provide resources by which Africa can adapt to the impacts of climate change. This is because even if we are able to stabilize the concentration of green house gasses in the atmosphere, at current levels climate change will continue for several decades. In a sense Africa is condemned to a certain level of climate change, the impacts of which could be very negative. Therefore the least that developed countries can and should do is to furnish the resources to mitigate the effects of climate change. Unfortunately this issue had not received the sort of attention it deserved. Finally, beginning from the Bali conference of all stakeholders, there is serious thought being given to the Adaptation Fund. This was actually created several years ago but has nothing in the way of resources. So there is an urgent need to raise the consciousness of the global community. Not that the IPCC has anything to do with resource allocation or making decisions to provide assistance to different parts of the world but.I organized an IPCC meeting here in Addis Ababa in 2004 and a lot of.
My colleagues were not overly enthused about coming here. I told them that they must come to Addis Ababa in order to at least get to understand local realities. Not that scientists are persuaded just by what they see but I thought it was important they get a sense of what the real impacts of climate change would be. Climate change can make poverty much worse …as we have clearly brought out in our Fourth Assessment Report which revealed that the poorest communities across the globe – even in the rich countries, are going to be the most affected. Take as an example the city of New Orleans. The worst affected by Hurricane Katrina were the least well off residents. The poorest, those who couldn’t afford to leave – were hardest hit.
The poor who are in rich countries are no better off than those in poor countries when it comes to the impacts of climate change. The plight of the poor is similar in all parts of the world and we must be sensitive to this fact.

Capital: – Say these resources are made available to Africa…. I’m, interested by the term adapting to climate change. What exactly does that mean or entail?
Dr. Pachauri: – That’s a valid question because in order to adapt you need first to create capacity. As to what adaptation actually means we can take the case of Ethiopia. Lets say there are going to be changes in precipitation (rainfall) brought about by climate change. In this situation, you would want to know what these shifts are, where precipitation would be higher or lower. We also know that across the globe there will be increased precipitation - or what we call extreme precipitation events. That means large quantities of rain falling within a relatively short time period. So the question is how are we to prepare for that? Ethiopia is very dependent on hydroelectric resources. All of your hydropower infrastructure is designed for a certain regime of rainfull and collection in the catchment areas. If precipitation paterns-alter, then perforce, you would also have to alter the design of the dams-at least those that are to be built in the future.
We have to keep in mind that there are going to be considerable alterations required as a result of climate change. The first thing we need to do is to assess what the precise impacts will be on Ethiopia and Africa. There will be impacts on agriculture so perhaps cropping patterns should be modified and we also need much more research on how, for instance, we can grow crops that are more drought resistant. New species and strains of crops must be developed. These are some of the adaptation measures which are going to demand considerable resources over a lengthy period.
At the heart of all this is the need to create local capacity by which it can be possible to generate knowledge about what is going to happen. One reason why my institute (The Energy and Resources Institute of India) has decided to set up a presence in Ethiopia is in order to help create that capacity.
I believe, as a representative from a developing country, that we are far better equipped and much more sensitive to the realities of what is going to happen than someone who parachutes in from a developed country (I’m not trying a draw a distinction here). It is important for us to work together and create that capacity as soon as possible by which, lets say, a group of scientists or government officials can be trained to understand how to develop and use climate change models, come up with projections for the future and help in decision making.
I think that is what is required and once you have that assessment then you are also better informed in finding out what kind of resources you require for adapting to climate change. Hopefully, the developed countries will attach much more credibility to the demands of countries such as Ethiopia.

Capital: - You head the Energy and Resources Institute of India. What are its main functions and, the recommendations it has made that could be applicable here in Africa?
Dr. Pachauri: – TERI is a fairly large institute with over 700 people working in very diverse fields. We have a major bio-technology program which has developed several new technologies that are being marketed. One region TERI technology has been commercialized is North America. We have come up with microbulid technology by which oil recovery can be enhanced. All the available oil from an oil well is not fully exploited by conventional methods. We developed a technology by which the oil flow is greatly accelerated and enhanced. Now it is possible to recover a greater extent of oil and with the price of oil way past the 100 dollar a barrel threshold, this technology is obviously attractive. TERI has therefore formed a joint venture with a U.S company, and is presently carrying out large scale trials on a number of wells, generating data on how much enhancement has taken place.
In biotechnology, one development that should be of particular interest to developing nations, including Ethiopia is called Microrisor –a form of micro- build organisms which attach to the roots of plants, enabling the plant to derive more nutrients from the soil than the plants root system alone could have done. Therefore even under the harshest climactic conditions, a given plant can grow much faster and productivity is increased…

Capital: – I must interrupt to ask if this product genetically modified…?
Dr. Pachauri: – Oh no, nothing of that sort. The product is completly organic. The organisms occur naturally and it is just a matter of finding out which bugs are most suitable for particular conditions and then injecting the organism.
TERI has been working on this for twenty years now and possesses the best collection in the world of these different types of microrisor. In a sense, you can call the organisms a type of bio- fertilizer which enhances nature with nature.
The natural world holds so many wonderful secrets which science can unravel through consistent research. If we can apply this knowledge without incurring environmental impacts and any harmful effects, then we can all benefit from it. This is by the way, knowledge that we would be delighted to share with the world.
TERI is also involved in major projects focusing on renewable energies, bio-fuels, policy issues, environmental protection, climate change and performs a lot of work in rural India. This is because unless you do this work at the grassroots level and insure that you bring about technological upgrading, you will not be able to fully understand the reality of the problems faced by poorer societies.
The very purpose of our visit to Ethiopia is to explore the ways by which we can collaborate and also provide the benefits of the experience and expertise we have developed, and see that this is of some use to Ethiopia and to other African countries

Capital: - Speaking of bio-fuels… they have been promoted as the perfect solution and perhaps they are. On one side we have the heated debate of whether bio-fuel crop cultivation will vie for land to the detriment of food agriculture. Is the world not without adequate arable land? Can bio fuel crop material be cultivated on formerly unused and low grade land?
Dr. Pachauri: - Firstly, there is a matter of perception. Unfortunately, because of the major efforts that have been made for instance, in the United States, the phrase ‘corn to ethanol’ has formed a negative image of bio-fuels. Conventional wisdom is that biofuels mean the conversion of food crops into fuel and therefore this would divert from food production to fuel production. I believe that converting food crops into bio-fuel is not the way to go forward. Utilizing corn in the U.S or palm oil in Malasia – this I do not support.
What we have to work with are solutions that do not compete with food production. We have a major project in this area that we are executing with British Petroleum (BP) involving about 8,000 hectares of essentially degraded land. We are growing jantropha, a plant producing nonedible seeds which contain an oil. Extracts of jantropha are very close substitutes to diesel fuel. In the first stages the extract can be used locally to run tractors, diesel pumps and so on. When large scale production begins, it can go to the refineries to power vehicles. Another project is to convert cellullosic (woody) material into bio-fuels but the science has not reached the stage where this could be commercialized. Work has started however, and the benefit would be that there is an abundance of raw material. In India alone, there are up to 800 mln tons of agricultural residue yearly. If we could convert this huge volume into bio-fuels, that would be a near perfect solution.

Capital: - Is climate change impacting already, especially in light of the current escalation of food prices globally? Is the food crisis an omen of things to come?
Dr. Pachauri: - Absolutely. However, this is not to say that we did not have a food security problem. Demand is going up very rapidly while supply has not quite kept pace. Demand is rising for a variety of reasons one of which is a higher consumption of animal proteins. If we take a country like China which is enjoying higher incomes, the Chinese are eating much more meat than ever before.
Twentyfive years ago, a Chinese farmer’s home would have several pigs- pork was the main meat consumed. A lot of the waste (the pigs’ excreta) was fed into a bio-gas plant in order to supply fuel for cooking. That has changed today as there is a much greater consumption of poultry, beef and other kinds of meat. These require a large amount of mainly cereals to feed the animals.
A lot of the soya bean produced in Brazil now goes to China for animal feed. I am not isolating China as this is a global phenomenon. Wherever incomes are rising there has been a shift to greater consumption of animal products. This is one factor that has put food security under pressure. To add to this is the problem of climate change. We have found for instance that in India, as far as wheat production is concerned, yields have been affected by climate change. Wheat is highly sensitive to temperature increases so even increments of a degree or two during a particular growth cycle have a major impact in reducing production levels.
Climate change therefore is not the only factor but it is an exacerbating factor. As you said, it is a vivid indication of what is to come. If I may mention a figure, our projections indicate that by 2020, in some countries there will be a decline in crop yields of about 50%. That has major implications. Firstly, it affects the availability of food, making it unaffordable to import from overseas. Surpluses have gone down and moreover, the income of farmers will be affected. We have large populations of poor people who are going to get even poorer and we have to be very concerned about that……..

Capital: - Scary times. I am wondering are there fears that the world is fast becoming incapable of responding as before to major calamities?
Dr. Pachauri :- Well, I would say that the Norwegian Nobel committee awarded the 2007 Peace Prize to us and to Al Gore, largely because they see the threat of the disruption of peace from such events. If you have a region that is suffering from prolonged drought or frequently recurring droughts, obviously there would be a food security threat as malnourishment increases and people eventually begin to die. What would a people to do in such a situation? They would leave their areas and go to another one which has the resources they lack. This movement will of course result in conflict situations.
These things could happen over a steep decline in agricultural production or on account of the growing water scarcity. These are two basics humans can not do without and when people do not have access with which to keep body and soul together, the situation becomes critical.
What is going to exacerbate this already dire forecast is the fact that extreme events are going to increase, as a result of which refugee’s will spill over from the devastated areas. It could be from the effects of extreme events such as sea level rise, storm surges, much stronger cyclones because of elevated sea levels, heat waves, droughts, floods and others. All of these events hold the potential for tension and conflict because when people are affected beyond a certain point of tolerance they will by necessity leave their areas.

Capital: - China and to a lesser extent India, are being pinpointed as the nations fueling high global demand for commodities. Are these countries scapegoats or is the blame a deserved one? And also, is Africa going to have to choose between development and environment?
Dr. Pachauri: - To answer the last part, I sincerely hope not! I think what we really need to do is develop in a manner that does not degrade the environment as has happened already on a vast scale. Frankly, this has implications on development itself because as you destroy the very ecosystems that sustain life, then livelihoods, especially the poorest of the poor will be impacted. Their dependence on ecosystem service is much higher than you and I, for instance. We have to be very clever; we must think out of the box in creating a paradigm of development and growth that would not in any way destroy the environment. If anything, development should be the thing that helps us to revive whatever natural resources we have destroyed. I refer to the regeneration of forestry, soils and others by which we can bring about amelioration of conditions that have worsened over the years. On the issue of China and India being blamed for the situation, I think it is an unethical allegation on the part of developed countries and in a sense a very convenient way of diverting attention from what they should be doing.
In the first place why do we have the problem of climate change? It is because of the cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases since the dawn of the industrial revolution. It is not caused by the emissions of today but of the last 200 odd years. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at the time when industrialization began was 280 parts to the million. Today it stands at about 380. The increase is essentially attributable to the developed nations. Now it is the turn of the developing countries to grow and they are doing so rapidly and they will be consuming higher quantities of fossil fuels to fuel this development.
The world knows only one paradigm of growth, that is-industrialization, the expansion of transport and with higher incomes, all of us deserve what we consider are the good things in life – cars, appliances etc, that all require power.
I think what we need is some kind of compact between north and south by which the developed countries start reducing their emissions and developing nations are allowed to increase theirs but at no stage to raise them to the levels of the developed world.
I believe we have to find a more intelligent way to growth. We can become stronger economically by not having to repeat the experience of the developed countries. All of this will happen only if the developed world also starts to think about reduction on a drastic scale.

Capital: - How strong is political support for this bold step? It seems like some countries are playing ‘you go first’, hesitant to make the first move…….
Dr. Pachauri: - That will not work in the situation that is confronting us. The earth and nature are not going to wait for us to make the right decisions, to settle our differences.
I do think there is now growing political awareness and I always believe that the best way to bring about change is to sensitize public opinion – to make sure that the average person in the street understands the realities of change and the role of every society that has caused it.