Fuel price increase and the economic effects

By Groum Abate

For the first time in a year, fuel prices increased, after being revised by the government. The increase in fuel prices will affect almost everything that is sold and any service given to customers.
With the aim of noting some of the items that are directly affected by the hike in fuel prices, Capital explored the effect on transportation costs and direct food purchase and also the impact on the distribution of electricity across the country.
Construction
The real estate development sector has been hit by a series of steep hikes in the cost of core building materials, a scenario that has become a source of deep concern among developers who see that this continuing rise in prices will have huge financial implications on the construction industry. Their fears were increased as there were strong indications of a further rise in the coming months.
Some developers said that this spiral has caused a severe crunch on the construction industry, and will add to inflationary pressures, create an economic slowdown and a subsequent investment collapse.
Several reports have indicated that rapid population growth is driving expansion of the real estate market in terms of property and infrastructure projects.
The mega development projects aim to gap the bridge between huge demand and short supply. This demand accompanied by some kind of monopoly in the supply of core construction materials, such as steel and cement, have generated the current soar in prices of building materials. Other factors include the tendency by developers to buy quantities that exceed what is actually needed, the higher freight charges and extra marine insurance fees triggered by increased fuel prices.
Food
Other facts show that the hike in prices includes foodstuff. Sugar and detergents surged by 25%, dairy products by 10%, vegetables 50%, - all in less than a week after the news of fuel rise hit the streets.
A food retailer in the Ehil Berenda area (central grain market), says prices increased immediately this week, after the government announced the price rise in fuel and fuel products. He adds that in the last couple of months food prices have, on average, increased by up to 200%. This week, a quintal of Teff is selling for between 600-650 birr.
Transport
Economically, the price hike will affect every part of society.
However, taxi drivers and commuters are among those most affected by the increase in fuel price. Taxi users were still reeling from the increase in fares by taxi drivers themselves everyday, before they were hit by yet another one last week.
People used to pay 0.65 birr for distances under 2.5 km before the recent price hike and now must pay 0.70 birr for the same distance. For distances under 7 km, people used to pay 1.20 birr but, following the price hike, commuters must pay 1.35 birr. The increase is further reflected as taxis who charged 1.75 birr for distances under 9 km now demand 2.00 birr.
Relatively speaking, the increments in the fares are not that significant, for those who can afford to take a taxi in the first place. But that is not how most feel.
There are some who have to commute a long way to work and back home. Many don’t earn enough to cover their living costs, without adding the burden of ever increasing transport costs.
Economic growth
Economic growth over the past two years has been strong and broad-based. Despite a significant drought, which held the economy back, real GDP growth was 8.9 percent in 2004/05 following an 11 percent growth rate in 2003/04.
Growth was driven by a strong agriculture sector (accounting for 12.1 percent of the growth), but also reflects good performance across sectors (6.6 percent in industrial production and 5.8 percent in services).
At the end of December 2005, consumer prices had risen by 11.7 percent in the previous 12 months, compared to 6.8 percent in June.
Food prices have been increasing more rapidly than the overall level of inflation in the past years.
The recently-published World Bank assessment indicates that government has taken steps to delay portions of its public investment plan (in energy and telecom) in light of the need to bridge the balance of payment gap, indicating that the oil import bill will be much higher than initially estimated. The IMF has indicated that the government’s proposals appear to be an adequate response to maintaining macro stability.
The fuel tariff increment raised the current electric price from 20 to 25 percent. The tariff increment is included in the strategy plan of EEPCo, and is part of the IMF’s plan to enable the corporation to achieve self-sustainability over the next five years.
Electricity
While the government has approved an electricity rate increase of about 25 percent, tariffs remain well below the level that would ensure the sustainability of EEPCo, and further adjustments will be required over time.
The corporation introduced the first phase of the tariff increment six years ago, which was planned by IMF. The IMF at that time forced the government to increase power tariffs if the government wanted financial support for the construction the then Gilgel Gibe I project.
Given that consumption of fuel and electricity is heavily skewed towards higher income levels, these policies use resources that could otherwise be used for pro-poor expenditures such as basic services and infrastructure.
However, since consumers of fuel and electricity are also disproportionately located in urban areas, the government faces a difficult decision of whether and how to raise prices to sustainable levels, especially considering the current food price inflation.

Petroleum import
According to the Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprise (EPE), the government body responsible for petroleum imports, in 2004 it imported 1,248,092 metric tons of petroleum at a cost of 3.08 billion birr. In 2004, the enterprise paid 2,471 birr for one metric ton. Last year, the cost of one metric ton of petroleum increased to 3,100 birr. In 2005, EPE imported 1.3 million metric tons of petroleum products at a cost of four billion birr.

'Super-Duper Tuesday' & Calculation Wednesday

By Kirubel Tadesse

Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008 was the day on which the most number of simultaneous state U.S. presidential primary elections were held. Twenty-four states and American Samoa held primary elections for both democratic and republican parties. In most previous primaries, Super Tuesday usually seals the nomination for one of the candidates, but this year the result was anything but conclusive for either Obama or Clinton, the only remaining democratic rivals. As Obama put it, it was no super duper this time. Super Tuesday was almost as inconclusive on the Republican side because of the nature of the candidates of the party.
The Republicans
Republican candidate, John McCain is now a very clear front-runner and it is realistically impossible to see any of the other candidates catching him - apart from New York and California, he won a clutch of other states too.
His weakness all along has been that conservative true-believers think he is suspect on issues such as illegal immigration, but the truth is they have no other candidate around whom to coalesce, and they regard McCain as sound on national defense, especially on Iraq.
The Republican race at one point appeared to have resolved itself into a straightforward gladiatorial contest between John McCain and Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, who plays on his economic and business credentials. He is a wealthy businessman, who has made a considerable fortune in the private sector. But alone of the candidates he is personally rich enough to stay in the race if he chooses too; even when it’s clear he has no real chance of winning. His team is poring over the details of the returns from the states they won, like Utah, but they won’t find much to encourage them. Romney faces a question that only troubles very rich candidates - how long is he minded to carry on writing the cheques!?He answered on Thursday by giving up the race. He announced that he is quitting the race even if he has won 294 delegates. That will leave the race to McCain and Huckabee.
The complicating factor on the Republican side was Mike Huckabee, the Baptist minister who is also a former governor of Arkansas. His shoestring campaign has been toiling away on his home turf in the Deep South and did rather better than anyone expected - perhaps even the droll and charming Huckabee himself. He won his own state of Arkansas, but he won Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama and West Virginia too.
Romney riled the Huckabee camp in the run-up to Super Tuesday by suggesting that he withdraw to make the Republican race a straight McCain/Romney battle. He seems to have goaded the already hardworking Huckabee into a superhuman effort. So, on the Republican side, McCain is in front, Romney is in denial and Huckabee is in with a chance of a place on the ticket. Early reports suggested that McCain secured more than 720 delegates triple more than his rivals.
The Democrats
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama girded to rejoin the battle in their epic White House fight. In a sort-of victory speech, the former first lady rallied for challenges to come after going toe to toe with her Democratic rival in a flood of contests on the biggest one-day primary clash ever. Her speech borrowed from a famous poem inscribed on the base of the Statue of Liberty (“Give me your tired, your poor”), as she promised to heal a troubled land following wins in big states like California and New York.
“We say give us this economy to rebuild and this war to end. Give us this nation to heal, this world to lead, this moment to seize. I know we’re ready. Thank you all and God bless you!”
But what seemed to be a slight lead and victory for Clinton in most reports becomes a draw and even worst for the former first lady when it was learned that Obama, seeking to become the first black US president, had cause for celebration also, after holding his own in the frenetic nationwide dash for delegates who will choose the Democratic White House nominee in August.
“There is one thing on this February night that we do not need the final results to know. Our time has come,” Obama told thousands of cheering supporters at his results party in Chicago. “Our time has come. Our movement is real. And change is coming to America,” he said. “What began as a whisper has now swelled to a chorus that cannot be deterred.”
The 46-year-old senator has looked remarkably spry in recent days despite the debilitating nature of his coast-to-coast tussle with Clinton, who has confessed to her exhaustion and twice was close to tears on the trail.
Clinton’s supporters applauded politely when she congratulated him on his state victories Tuesday. But Obama boosters gathered in Chicago booed when Clinton appeared on television.
Well-educated, young and upscale voters once again came out for Obama, as did African Americans. Independent voters went for Obama by a 58-35 margin according to exit polls. But Hispanic voters stayed with Clinton.
‘Calculation Wednesday’
The initial headlines after Super Tuesday made it feel like advantage Senator Clinton - true she only won eight states to Senator Obama’s 13, but they included the huge prizes of New York and California, which tend to grab the headlines.
The day after Super Tuesday, ‘Calculation Wednesday’ in which the fund-raisers and pollsters in every camp get out the party election rule books and fill in their spreadsheets with the detailed returns.
By most calculations, it looks as though Senator Obama may have ended up with more delegates than Senator Clinton, perhaps around 850 to 840. But the essential story of a race which is virtually tied does not really change. Thursday reports were confirming Obama’s delegates lead 838 to 834 over Hillary.
He had momentum in the build up to Super Tuesday, and now he needs to build it again before next month’s battles in Texas and Ohio. On the plus side, he has plenty of money - he is said to have raised more than $1m a day in one recent month. Things became clearer on this “Calculation Wednesday” after the media miss calculation and buzz but they are far neither from sealing the nomination or projecting the final, at least for the Democrats.
Over the next two weeks, nine states plus the Virgin Islands will select delegates. Obama would seem to have a clear advantage in four of those locales: Louisiana, the Virgin Islands, Washington, D.C., and Hawaii. Democrats also give him the edge in Maryland, Wisconsin, Washington and Virginia. Nebraska and Maine look to be up for grabs.
Clinton, by contrast, has to wait three weeks for big states where her strategists like the odds - Texas and Ohio. After that, it’s a long wait until Pennsylvania votes on April 22.
“After tonight, time becomes the ally of Senator Obama,” said Rep. Richard Boucher who has endorsed Obama. “The more exposure he gets the stronger his chances are. The compressed primary schedule has been a tremendous challenge for him.”
But the challenge that endures for Obama is changing the way women and the over-60 crowds have voted so far this year. White women voted for Clinton by a huge margin, 58 percent to 38 percent. Voters over 60 went for Clinton 55-38. But Obama did win men on last Tuesday, perhaps a sign he is getting the bulk of voters who had supported John Edwards. And he closed the gender gap overall, albeit only slightly.
These groups are the stalwarts of Democratic primaries and pose a huge obstacle for Obama. Obama raised $32 million to Hillary’s $13.5 million in January — financial edges that will help him organize and advertise in the upcoming battlegrounds. On Tuesday, her campaign called for four debates between now and March 4, a sign that she wants to make up for her financial disadvantage with free media.
Delegates and Super Delegates
Super delegates are delegates to a presidential nominating convention in the United States who are not bound by the decisions of party primaries or caucuses. Super delegates are elected by officeholders and party officials. They are sometimes referred to as “unpledged delegates,” but some unpledged delegates are not super delegates. Super delegates were first appointed in the 1970s, after control of the nomination process in the Democratic Party effectively moved out of the hands of party officials into the primary and caucus process. The aim was to grant some say in the process to people who had been playing roles in the party before the election year.
The Republican Party has 123 similarly automatically appointed delegates and members of the Republican National Committee. Including these appointees, the Republican Party has 463 unpledged delegates out of a total of 2,380 delegates.
A total of 2,025 delegates are needed to secure the Democratic nomination. Democrats award delegates proportionally in every state. That means the second-place finisher who gets at least 15 percent of the vote also will win delegates. Indeed, even if a candidate wins the popular vote in a state by a wide margin, the edge on delegates could be significantly smaller.
The counting was just beginning. But in both cases a candidate only needs a simple majority (50% +1) of delegate votes to win the nomination - that’s 2,025 in the case of the Democrats, and 1,191 in the case of the Republicans.
This race, of course, will be historic because it will produce either the first female or black presidential nominee from a major American political party who has a serious chance of winning the national election, most likely pitting one of them against John McCain.

Media in Ethiopia
It’s all about literacy

By Tesfu Telahoun

It is a given that national rates of literacy determine reading habits. For all our ancient traditions and a unique and intricate alphabet, knowledge was not disseminated to the people. Literacy was for centuries confined as the domain of scribes and ‘Awaki’ (sorcerers) and was not a skill downtrodden peasants could ever aspire to attaining. The result has been that up to 1974, Ethiopia was 97% illiterate.
The military regime, for all its gruesome record, nevertheless was the first government to systematically combat ignorance and try to eradicate illiteracy. Thousands of years of the intellectual darkness that defined feudalism began to be illuminated as the ‘Meserete Timhret’ (Basic Education) campaign, participating tens of millions of eager adult students and their young instructors succeeded in dramatically increasing literacy by 20%. In recognition of the great achievement, UNICEF gave Ethiopia a special merit award. The absence of a reading culture has adversely impacted the development of Ethiopian print media as well as the fine arts including of course, the development of literary traditions.
The paradox is that Ethiopia has failed to take advantage of its head start in various fields of human development. The Ethiopian alphabet and numerics are among the oldest in the world still in wide use and the indigenous letters and numbers are unique in Africa. An advanced form of prose and liturgical centered literary tradition had developed in Ethiopia even as Europe was fumbling about in the dark Middle Ages and Africa was shrouded in mysterious and remote obscurity.
Leaving aside the obviously involved research required to understand the demise of Ethiopia’s literary tradition to sociologists, lets return to how print media can regain at least some lost ground and contribute, along with educators and the state, to instill nationally the sorely missing culture of reading. We start with some data on global literacy patterns for contrast with Ethiopia:
Literacy rates

· Sudan 60.9%
· Eritrea 58.6 %
· Somalia 37.8%
· Ethiopia 35.9%
· Chad 25.7%
· Kenya 73.6%
· Uganda 66.8%
· Ghana 57.9%
· Senegal 39.3%
· South Africa 82.4%
Raising the literacy rate should be a national priority as it is the most direct way of surmounting many if not all of our social, political and economic challenges. National development and progress in any sphere, including a strong fourth estate (media) will remain an unlikely prospect if nearly two-thirds of the nation’s citizens can’t read and write.
The former regime within a relatively short time, accomplished quantum leaps through the literacy campaign. There is every reason that with concerted state, corporate and private mobilization, and with the vastly improved infrastructure and technology at hand today in Ethiopia, we can rid our nation of illiteracy within the new Ethiopian decade.
One of the barometers of national reading habits is daily newspaper circulation- DNC. This is the average number of newspapers circulating among 1000 people.
Denmark has 100% literacy and therefore a correspondingly high DNC of 282 newspapers per 1000. Among African countries, Egypt and South Africa are among the best performers but with DNCs of 32 (71.4% literacy) and 25 (82.4% literacy) respectively. One up from the bottom globally, (among nations for which data is available) is Ethiopia, barely registering with 0.4 newspapers in daily circulation for 1000 people. The last position is held up by Chad which has a DNC of 0.2 per 1000.
Expanding literacy is a multi pronged national task and one to which print and electronic media can contribute to a limited extent. The media could for example, devote special sections for learners – as used to be done on Addis Zemen in the years of the literacy campaign (1975-1980). These easy – to – read supplements, besides supporting the drive towards universal literacy, will also draw millions to the joys of reading.
Other measures
Having established that the low national rate of literacy is a serious impediment to the growth of especially print media, there are several steps that can be taken in other areas. These may include making available opportunities for students to meet reputable media personalities, artists, actors and other recognizable figures, televised talent shows themed on media,the free distribution to schools of a limited number of copies of every issue by all publishing houses and other initiatives.

“what makes the Chinese different from the Americans is that they are willing to do business virtually anywhere and with anyone.

Going back to the roots and
traditional values

By Abiy Demilew

For the eminent scholar, the solutions are pretty clear. “This is only a symbol of what one can do if we start to explore the richest pages of our culture and tradition and we start favoring them,” he said proudly to the over flowing auditorium where many were even standing in the aisles or sat on the floor for the entire session.
He is a proven activist of modern education in formulating and introducing the Literacy Campaign of the 70s in which people nationwide were privileged to basic education. Coming of age and life full of local and international experiences, he believes that the modern education system should be based on strong foundations of valuing the richest pages of Ethiopian history, culture and traditions. “Then we can take whatever is important and valuable from other cultures and traditions of the rest of the world.”
For most people, he is not only a prominent intellectual figure but also a man of huge wisdom. His life journey takes him to all corners of the planet always with his positive Ethiopian pride. Blessed with a dozen languages, he is playing significant roles in peace and reconciliation around the world.
Listening to him informally or attending his lectures, is an unforgettable experience. Tonight he is gracing the historic Ras Mekonnen hall at the Addis Ababa University, his first lecture after his recent achievement as leader of the Elders Council, the release of CUD leaders. One of the world’s leading thinkers, he is none other than Professor Ephraim Yishak, a great Ethiopian and one of the world’s most learned individuals.
His lecture, “Tradition of elders in peace making” was part of the discussion forum organized by the Goethe Institute in collaboration with Frederick Ebert Foundation and the Addis Ababa University on January 22nd 2008.
The panelists included the second figure in the mediation process of the Council of Elders, Pastor Daniel, and Dr. Klaus Knoop, the German Ambassador to Ethiopia.
In his educational presentation, the professor detailed the value of having morally motivated traditional elders in peace making and reconciliation and touched various local, regional and international issues and cases.
Moreover, he spoke earnestly about the importance of involving the elderly in mediation and conflict resolution before tension turns to bloodshed.
Capital presents a slightly abridged version of the lecture, by Professor Ephraim Yishak in its capacity as media partner to the lecture series “Democracy and the Social Question III”.
The lectures of this series, held in English, with speakers from both the Ethiopian and international community, provide a podium for open dialogue on democracy issues.
Tradition of elders in peacemaking
Since I was a child of three, I have personally experienced the tragic effects of war. I have seen artillery and bullets exploding directly in front of my eyes -- in 1941, when the Ethiopian army expelled the Italians from my small town of Nedjo; in 1960, during the attempted Coup in Addis Ababa; and in 1967, during the Six-Day War in Israel. I have seen my own friends killed or maimed. Such experience is important for a spiritually motivated peacemaker. A first-hand experience of fighting and blood nurtures the virtues of the heart -- humility, empathy, kindness, generosity, respect and sacrifice for others -- a part of the big package I call wisdom, and that wisdom has to be communicated in a special language of the heart. That is the making of a true elder.
What is an elder? In English, the word refers to a senior person advanced in age or a church leader. In Ethiopian languages, the equivalent term is the word jarsa in Oromifa, shimagle in Amharic or Tigninya. However, in these and other Ethiopian languages, the term has come to designate not just a person advanced in age, but also one who has profound wisdom because of life experience, and can lovingly settle disputes among conflicting individuals or groups. Time and age often help a person to see, hear, feel, and experience the ups and downs, joys and sorrows of life, that produce the introspection necessary for such maturity that can result in good and balanced judgment about life and people. However, while age can be a factor, it may not be the only criteria of primary significance for eldership. The youngest member of our Coalition of Elders is Haile Gebre-Sellasie. He is a person who has experienced what it means to survive and endure extreme, painful, physical and emotional pressure, respecting his competitors, and learning the lesson of reconciling himself to winning or losing with dignity.
In Ethiopian culture eldership has often a spiritual dimension -- the knowledge of the Bible for Christians and their respective religious traditions for non-Christians can be the source of such wisdom. In this respect, Kristos Samra, Walata Petros, Zara Yacob are past examples. Emperor Yohannes, and Menelik… This culture of peace has become so built into the culture that the words have verbal meanings… Indeed, to be an elder is not a matter of pure knowledge, but feeling. A good music director is one who knows music… but it has to be part of nature… Es liegt in Blut!!! The modern UN approach is not satisfactory… Traditions of Afarsataa…. Baito…..etc.
Spiritually-motivated eldership, mediating, peacekeeping, and promotion of reconciliation among individual and social groups, is a well-established ancient institution. It behooves professional peace-searching private, governmental, and UN institutions to explore seriously this ancient institution potential for peacemaking. The spiritual connection of the elders with the grassroots population and their active involvement in mediation can be critical in establishing conciliatory meetings with the relevant parties, disseminating the value of peace among those making decisions, and remaining in communication with international bodies and mediation groups. Elders can become peaceful links to governmental and international contacts not only to air local grievances but also to see and achieve reconciliation. Directly and indirectly the work of recognized elders can contribute to the work of representatives of international and diplomatic leaders.
In brief, my own involvement and efforts in peacemaking for a couple of decades are deeply rooted in the concept of spiritually inspired elders, based on my knowledge of Ethio-Eritrean history and culture, my belief in the deeper structure of religion, traditional religious ethics, and, in particular, prophetic Judaism. I have believed in the efficacy of eldership since my childhood because I have observed inter-personal conflicts being settled by respected members of my community; transparent, God-fearing Oromo elders of Wallaga, where I grew up. That is why today I shall focus on my spiritual eldership experience in Ethiopia and Eritrea, and then allude to other conflict areas, in particular the Middle East and Ireland, of which I also have first-hand knowledge.
The guiding principles of spiritually motivated elders
The role of spiritual eldership itself too has been and can be misused if not carefully guarded against the machinations of selfish human nature by unscrupulous individuals. True elders are described in the various places of the Bible as selfless, generous, patient, humble, honorable, sensitive, lawful, prudent, mature, wise, and discerning moral individuals who are at peace with themselves. Those who want to be peacemakers in the modus operandi of this ancient spiritual institution must be held to the highest moral standards. These standards of integrity are to be attested by the testimony of immediate communities in which such elders were born and grew up and in which they have lived and worked for a long time, not by qualifications of university education nor by the sensational attractions of transient alluring personal popularity in a new community.
Traditional elders fear God, not people, not even the rulers; (2) respect rulers and people whatever their status; (3) have limitless patience and ability to listen and never give up, not expecting results overnight; (4) speak politely, not using angry/offensive language; (5) are humble, honest, and tolerant; (6) do not harbor hate, but love people and sympathize with their suffering; (7) know and understand their subject deeply; (8) are not judgmental and do not take sides; (9) work hard– sleep in moderation; (10) are overall wise and discerning with faith and hope that all will be well in the end. This philosophy of elders is still a highly viable, alternative technique for problem solving—in an innovative way. It is a tradition that can serve as a model and pose a challenge to all countries that can use their own respective inherent capacities to solve their respective problems.
Spiritually-guided mediation is especially important for the peoples of Ethiopia and Eritrea (and also the Middle East) where recognized elders have historically played major roles in providing security and stability in the community. The 17th Century Ethiopian St. Krestos Samra, Mother of Peace, and the religious philosopher Zar’a Ya’aqob were historically respected advocates of people-to-people peace. Five hundred years ago, Damiao do Goes, the great Portuguese humanist, a disciple of Erasmus, described Ethiopia, a land where Christians, Moslems, and Jews and peoples of different languages lived in peace together, as a role model of tolerance for Europe. About three hundred years ago, foreign travelers, including the Portuguese and missionaries, like Alvares and Almeida, observed and wrote about respected elders of proven high moral status and very sophisticated systems of dispute settlement in Ethiopia. In the 19th century, when Emperors Yohannes and Menelik went into dangerous combat against each other, the elders rang church bells and came out of the sanctuaries carrying the traditionally venerated Holy Ark of the Covenant. The two immediately retreated and made peace without delay, and so serious bloodshed was averted. As recently as in 1991, I personally witnessed how there was calm and general security instead of looting and crime when the EPRDF army entered Addis Ababa, a city of some three million people consisting of diverse ethnic and religious background, in the face of the absence of any responsible security apparatus because the police force of the former regime had all dispersed or fled; the people were going to their places of worship and the God-fearing community elders were keeping the peace. (This was also reported on BBC and some European newspapers.) Ato Wolde-Ab Wolde-Maryam, the wise ‘Father of Eritrea”, once remarked, “The problem of Ethiopia and Eritrea is the want of action by elders.” Indeed, good prospects for utilizing spiritually-guided elders’ in peacemaking reside in Ethiopia and Eritrea, because of existing historical precedents.
A truly successful contemporary example of mediation effort by a spiritually-motivated elders group, in which I was personally involved, took place in 1992 (1984 Ethiopian Calendar.) This effort is unknown to outsiders even to this day, because it was executed in confidence without publicity, and no international negotiators were involved. The paradox of this effort was not only that elders worked from a religious perspective, but also that they were making peace among warring religious leaders—leading Archbishops of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church! That year, a major conflict developed among the Archbishops, regarding the administration of the Church, that caused the planned synodic meeting to be cancelled, and a dangerous split was about to take place in the Church. On Monday April 6 (Miazia 12 Ethiopian calendar) and Wednesday April 8 (Miazia 14), we organized worldwide teleconferences lasting seven hours, not publicly revealed to the international or national community. In the teleconferences, six leading Archbishops within Ethiopia, the Archbishop of Jerusalem, the Archbishop of North America, and several other Ethiopian church leaders and educators took part. As the then Secretary of the Church, Archbishop Gabriel, wrote to the Chair, “I testify that your sincere determination to resolve our dispute through calm dialogues and your action to bring us together led to our accord that will never ever be forgotten. This holy deed of yours is recorded for posterity in the history of our Church and will be chronicled forever as living testimony to which I myself am a witness…”
My belief in the spiritually-centered, locally-based role of elders in resolving conflicts was again reinforced by anecdote and observation during my recent visit to Ethiopia. The Ethiopian Deputy Chief Justice, Ato Menbere-Tsehay, gave me examples of ordinary people who come to court. A man borrowed $500 and reneged on paying it back. The creditor took him to court, but the creditor lost the case because he had no written loan agreement and the debtor had lied and denied borrowing the money before the presiding professional, law-school trained judges. The disconsolate creditor returned to his village and grumbled about what had happened to him to a respected religious elder. The elder summoned the debtor and confronted him saying, “Speak the truth!” The very same man who lied to the official court forthrightly admitted borrowing the money and paid back the creditor right there and then, and the two were reconciled. I have come to learn that this is not an exception; on the contrary, it is the normal way of settling many disputes all over the region. For, litigants who tend to lie to law school trained judges in formal court would not do so before local religious elders. (Politicians worldwide, who would perhaps take in foreign negotiators, cannot do so easily and deceive their respective people who know their language and ethos.)
II Origin, nature, and activities of peace elders for the horn
In 1989, at a critical stage in Ethiopian history, with violence sweeping the country, a group of concerned Ethio-Eritrean elders came together to intervene and stop the bloodshed. We met one weekend and spent a long time praying together and discussing a spiritual road of conflict resolution and traditional peacemaking culture. We understood that where there was no love there could be no peace, as ancient spiritual teachers, including the late Mother Teresa, have held. We, therefore, began our work as a family with love and respect for each other, for our warring compatriots, and for all our peoples. Driving our authority from the peace culture of our ancient spiritual Ethio-Eritrean shimagles or/jarsas “elders” traditions, we were able to serve as independent, neutral mediators. Rooted in such a deeper structure of our religio-ethical principles and committed to seek truth and justice, we vowed to promote and implement peace and reconciliation where there was hate and conflict among our peoples. An Ad Hoc Peace Committee (AHPC) of elders with one sacred goal was thus born to create a forum for a calm, mutually respectful dialogue with and among the conflicting parties.
The AHPC consisted of noted and respected politically unaffiliated Ethio-Eritrean leaders. Among them were a former Secretary General of the Ethiopian Teachers Federation and a director of an immigrant services organization in Texas, former Secretary General of the Eritrean Teachers Federation and a Dean at the University of Maryland, a former Secretary General of the Ethiopian Labor Federation and a representative of AFLCIO, a former Director of Ethiopian Ministry of Public Health and Professor at Howard University, a former Haile Sellasie University Dean and Professor of psychology, a former provincial governor and President of the Agricultural College and a UN agricultural consultant, a Professor of Woman’s Studies in Arizona State University, a former professor of Ethiopian languages in a German university, a Human Rights Lawyer, and I, a former Harvard Professor, scholar of Biblical and Ethiopian languages and religious literature, translator of Handel’s Messiah into the Amharic language, and Director General of the National Literacy Campaign Organization of Ethiopia. These elders were chosen thoughtfully as ethical individuals who valued their respective religious traditions: Ethiopian Orthodox, Protestant, and Catholic Christians; a devout Moslem; and a devout Jew.
Representing a spectrum of opinions, we, the elders, were deliberately joined together not only from different religions, but also from diverse ethnic, professional, and gender backgrounds. The AHPC was also unique not only in this regard but also in respect to the fact that members, although all highly educated, sophisticated individuals residing in the West, revered and valued the traditional religio-ethical, admirably straightforward, Ethio-Eritrean culture of eldership and conflict resolution procedures. Fortunately and importantly, each one of us had one or another venue of contact or relations with the political parties, groups and individuals involved in the conflicts, whose members we would often encounter at weddings, funerals, and other family occasions.
The original objectives of the AHPC, deeply rooted in such a spiritual culture, were 1) the confidential, traditional method and mandate of spiritual shimagele/jarsa or elders role in conflict resolution; 2) bridge-building, reconciling, and supporting efforts to resolve conflicts among the parties; 3) sympathetic listening, broadmindedness, impartiality, and advocacy of serious dialogue; 4) facilitating a fair process and an open forum through which all conflicting parties could come together to work out their differences; 5) providing a safe, conducive environment for discourse facilitation where participants themselves could address each other and work out solutions; and 6) trusting that their efforts would be blessed from the Almighty.
Without further ado, all parties to the conflict (the then-conquering EPLF, EPRDF, and OLF; as well as all the other parties EDU, EPRP, MEISON, EPDA, ALF … and even the reluctant Derg, then still in power, warmly welcomed the elders, and their vision and resolve. Thus, right from the outset our elders were able to establish regular personal contact and correspondence with the respective leaders of all the conflicting parties. For over a year, there were daily telephone exchanges with “friends” within the diverse conflicting parties. AHPC was able to bring together several of the parties on a bilateral or multilateral basis and urge and pressure them to end their hostilities speedily. In an atmosphere of a quiet spiritual diplomacy—the role and mandate of spiritual shimagle/jarsa elders in the implementation of a confidential, traditional method of conflict resolution-- a series of careful, non-publicized negotiations developed at a time when the combatants were not talking to each other or to outsiders.
Consequently, our elders were successful in laying the foundations for dialogue and were making progress towards understanding among the conflicting parties both because of the catalytic nature of the AHPC and the strengths of its constituent elders. The elders themselves managed to show great flexibility in fast-changing Ethiopian military and political situations due to the fact that AHPC’s paramount goal of peacemaking had been clear and unsullied by other ambitions. Above all, the elders were more tuned to the result of their efforts on high moral ground than to personal fame and publicity; hence, in this regard, all attempts by the media to identify the members did not succeed, and requests for interviews with the Chair were turned down even when there were sensational stories. (In fact, after all these years, this is the first time that I myself have agreed to speak with some detail in public about the AHPC and its activities.)
The AHPC contributed to the speed of the cessation of hostilities, made formal at the Addis Ababa “Conference for a Peaceful and Democratic Transition” in July of 1991. At that meeting the Transitional Council, the interim Parliament of Ethiopia, was constituted and the Transitional Government of Ethiopia was formed. The AHPC not only contributed to the conflict resolution process throughout, but also played a major role as a backer of the meeting, helping to defray the cost of the meeting in Africa Hall. I was delegated to represent AHPC as participant-observer, along with diplomats, religious leaders, and representatives of the international community. As Chair and on behalf of AHPC, I gave one of the concluding messages, a spiritual admonition that peace must grow into a lasting reconciliation.
One international organization that believed in our spiritually-motivated elders and became a ready partner of our AHPC, a matter for which we were profoundly grateful, was the Swedish Life and Peace Institute (LPI) of Uppsala. This Institute was aware that religiously-motivated elders had a track record since times immemorial: in recent years, the Quakers played a role in the Nigeria-Biafra conflict of the late 1960’s, the World Council of Churches in the Sudan in the 1970’s (a peace effort that led to the intervention by the eldership of Emperor Haile Selasie in 1972), and other church groups in Ireland and Bosnia. According to the late Olle Dahlen, then Board Chair of the Institute, “church bodies have been instrumental in contributing to a good climate in Korea” through the good offices of the churches in the South together with the Christian Conference in Asia that established and kept contact with the churches of the North and the respective governments. Our LPI partners, led by Rev. Sture Normark and Mrs. Susannah Lunden, also recruited Norwegian Church and Government aid and two Mennonite Church partners, John Paul Lederach and Menno Webb, as facilitators. As plans evolved to have a meeting in a secret Alpine resort, the Swiss Government also offered assistance to allow political dissidents to get entry to the country. What subsequently took place is explained below.
AHPC was a peace organization led by nationals with good foreign friends as active supporters and facilitators. It was a prototype of conflict resolution and a model of cooperation that can be highly successful. The interested international parties empower the local spiritual elders in the spirit of a genuine search for peace without too much interference or credit hunting.
Concluding remarks
Warring, unfortunately, has always been a part of human history. Religious (and for that matter ethnic or political) differences do not necessarily cause war, but those who wage it have used these differences as rationalizations for it and its escalation. The real root causes of warfare are deeply embedded in human psyche, as Freud once explained to Einstein in response to a League of Nations query addressed to the later whether peace was ever possible. Freud rightly argued that war, a social phenomenon, and aggression, a personal phenomenon, are different manifestations of the natural human animal instinct of violence, or, as Hobbes put it, homo homini lupus, although such a statement might be unfair and offensive to the wolves. In other words, conflicts arise from an individual’s animal self- interest for survival, and the egoistic human instinct of personal glory, feeling of superiority, greed or love of money, and of course an irrational sense of a divine mission or karma. Marrying this volatile human animal instinct to the superficial dimension of religion has been the cause of many wars and is the catalyst of modern terrorist infernos.
Resolution of the root causes of anger and hostility, preventing or even eliminating war, and for that matter of suicide bombings, cannot therefore be found solely or primarily within the confines of ordinary diplomacy or logical conflict-resolution expertise. It must also come from the realm of humble wise eldership with sensitive disposition and categorical determination to promote calm emotional dialogues of the heart based on mutual respect and understanding among conflicting peoples—in particular, their grassroots backbone. We must actively seek and delve into the deeper spiritual fountain of the mind to help us turn our differences into assets and our angers into empathy.
This type of religiously motivated peacemaking is bridge building, but it is not bridge building carried out by engineering, or overly analyzed systems of thought. The bridge goes between heart and brain, and heart to heart. It is not solely a product of a rational act. Elders are like conductors, not engineers. Conductors should know music, but their communication with the musicians has to be, to use a German Phrase, es ligt in Blut, a natural gift. While international peace negotiators generally look at border conflicts on the land, spiritually-guided elders look into the hearts, the border demarcations between the veins and the aorta, and never give up even if they fail over and over again. That is the basis of the philosophy of the Horn of Africa religiously motivated elders movement that begun in the late 1980’s.
In addition, professionals might find it easy to bring political leaders together to a table to sign a peace accord. But there can never be lasting peace anywhere unless there is involvement, participation, and reconciliation on the grassroots level. When Ethiopia, a signatory of the Algiers accord, declined to proceed with the Ethio-Eritrean border demarcation finalization, the Government announced that the people had rejected the decision and that, therefore, the Government could not go against the will of the people and fulfill the international court ruling. When the popular President Clinton put all the mighty clout of the US behind the Middle East peace and tried to bring Prime Minister Barak and President Arafat to the peace accord-signing table, and other Arab leaders were urging him to go ahead, Arafat “could not bring himself to say yes,” afraid of public opinion or what his people would say, as we learn from Clinton” autobiography. In the latter case, one of the most persistent conflict ridden region, to date, peace professionals have not actively mobilized ordinary Palestinians as well as well as culturally related Arab Jews of Yemen or Iraq or Morocco, as peace bridge builders. I humbly do not believe that there can be real peace between conflicting groups anywhere in the world, be it Northern Ireland, the Balkans, or elsewhere, until there is at least a modicum of reconciliation among their respective peoples.
In brief, then, I maintain that the best method of reconciliation of warring factions in our weapons-sophisticated world might ironically be the age-old method of negotiation: peace making by spiritually or ethically grounded elders imbued with the idioms of the respective religious traditions of their respective regions and connected to their respective broad grassroots population. Spiritually or ethically grounded wise elders, men or women regardless of age, profoundly understand the human dimension and the soul and ethics, psychology and history, not just the ideology and devices, of the combatants or political contestants among their own peoples. These elders know personally the blood of their own kin will flow if they fail to broker peace. They participate or officiate at the burial of the dead soldiers, some of whom might be their very relatives. The warring peoples or political parties generally consider them venerable moral guides. And, when all is said and done, the warring parties know that it is with the local respected elders of their community that they have to live as neighbors and fellow citizens for a long time.
In the case of Ethiopia and Eritrea, they have a culturally and historically inbuilt system of spiritual eldership, as alluded to elsewhere in this paper. Ethiopian and Eritrean Christian leaders used to have “Soul Fathers,” or “Father Confessors”. There also existed venerated hermits and troglodytes who could come out of their caves and rebuke the most feared leaders; none, including the supreme rulers of the land, were supposed to cross them. Similar visionaries and official and unofficial spiritual leaders were also found among the Moslems and Jews, and still exist in the region. Among the great Oromo people of Ethiopia there exists an age-old democratic culture, based on mutual trust and confidence between the ordinary people and the sagacious community elders who settle practically most of the conflicts that arise in the community. The study and knowledge of such ancient traditions will benefit not only international mediators but also even the region’s western-educated leaders who now hold the reins of political and economic power, and some (not all) of whom since the 1970s ill-advisedly tend to turn first to modern methods of conflict resolution that have, however, not succeeded to fully undo the bitter hostilities of three decades in the Horn of Africa so far.
No one questions that international mediators and peace professionals, governments and their diplomats, established religious organizations and NGO’s, and all parties working on conflict resolution and stability in the world have surely made and still make great contributions. They indeed do. However, they must also understand and respect traditional peacemaking practices as well as seek and devise ways of collaborating with and empowering local spiritually, ethically-guided elders wherever conflicts exist, arise, or might arise. That way we can all work together with mutual friendliness and respect and make the most effective contributions to regional and world peace.
To its credit, the UN has been to a certain extent supportive of the idea of working with local spiritual elders in Africa as a valuable channel of peacemaking. Only recognition by all other international professionals and governments of the elders’ councils, and renewed efforts by the elders themselves can bring peace to our region—and as its consequence, in time, possibly glorious achievements inspiring to the whole world. The role of native spiritual elders/peacemakers and bridge builders must be accepted, respected, and supported by all peace-loving governments and international institutions. Progress towards lasting peace and reconciliation within and among the nations of the world must be pursued by the UN jointly with the religious communities and institutions like the Tanenbaum Center for Interreligious Understanding, The Temple of Understanding, and similar organizations that make effort to promote the peacemaking properties of religion. (A word of caution: all parties must be aware that unfortunately not all who pose as religiously motivated peacemakers might be sincere. The UN and other non-religious peace mediators who earnestly seek to engage spiritual elders must guard against charlatans who abound and are ready to take advantage of them.)
We are today reviving the tradition of eldership - thanks to the PM Meles who had the wisdom to make our Government examine our own culture and show respect to our culture of eldership. Likewise, we thank the leaders of the competing (I do not like the word opposition) parties that also welcomed our intitution of eldership with respect and open heart, and the great people of Ethiopia that gave us this great inheritance.
As Ian G. Barbour in his When Science Meets Religion and other instruct us, today, quantum physicists and theologians are having a serious dialogue about the ultimate meaning of our existence. If such a dialogue is taking place between hardcore scientists and theologians/ metaphysicians, why not between us, distinguished conflicting parties and elders, spiritual peace dreamers…. Together can we perhaps not make a difference in our society and future?
If we say yes, to use Shakespeare,
There will be mirth in heaven,
When everything made well
Atone together
(AS YOU LIKE IT)