Weaning Ethiopia off oil

International oil prices are shooting through the roof, having long gone beyond the psychologically important 100 dollar mark weeks ago. It is now a given that global political economy is determined by the price of oil.
To make a bad situation worse, OPEC and its cohorts, the multi-national oil giants, have chosen this time to get even greedier than usual. The group is united on the bottom(less?)line, as they demonstrated at their coven last week in Vienna, Austria.
We are at the mercy of OPEC and it seems we can’t do much about it – except whimsically pray for a domestic oil strike; that is, unless we apply our intelligence and the bountiful diversity of our country to work.
What is the annual burden on our economy in regard to oil and oil products importation? The latest available data reveals that Ethiopia can hardly afford its currently growing thirst for fossil energy.
In 2006/07 Ethiopia imported over 1.2 million metric tons of petroleum products – the bulk of this consisting of benzene and diesel fuel, costing several billions of birr. With a rate of consumption, according to some analysts, rising by over 10% annually, the burden on the overall economy is like a yoke of lead on our collective shoulders.
However, Ethiopia could indeed go ‘Brazil’ and within 3 to 5 years drastically – up to 85% - reduce imports of refined petroleum products.
The experience of that great South American nation can spell the difference between assured economic success and a continued dependency on an unbending and highly politicized cartel.
Brazil has proven, through its ethanol program, that farsightedness is worth the temporary ridicule, as 26 years ago, the world looked askance at the now envied ethanol based Brazilian transport industry.
Brazil in the late 70’s, embarked on a massive multi-sectoral project to produce ethanol for fossil fuel (petrol) substitution, using a blend of 15 parts of petrol to 85 of ethanol.
Brazil’s 23 million cars and trucks save the nation tens of billions of dollars yearly that would have gone to pay for 105 USD a barrel oil.
Ethiopia is in many respects, similar to the Brazil of the 70’s. It has vast land, unlimited people power, little money and huge economic challenges, chief of which is our 100% dependency on foreign oil.
Ethanol can be our very near future. Once untilled land, even the least fertile, can be utilized to grow the sugarcane and other crops from which ethanol could be processed.
Besides dedicated plantations and processing plants, Ethiopia’s ambitious program in developing a qualitatively and quantitatively competitive sugar industry is another potential source of ethanol.
Ethanol is virtually emissions free, odorless and renewable energy source with a basket in offset benefits. These include the highly labor intensive character of the industry, complementary or derivative products and above all, long term stability in the nation’s transport sector.
It is high time that Ethiopia applies a strategy that will gradually but surely wean it off fossil fuels we can no longer afford. We have inexhaustible supplies of wind, solar and geothermal potential. These require advanced knowhow and massive investment. However, we are successfully harnessing more and more of our hydropower potential. Developing a largely ethanol based transportation system is not as challenging as building mammoth dams on our mighty rivers.
This almost helpless dependency on the import of expensive oil and oil products, may perhaps, prevent the hyper inflation nightmare that threatens to rub expensive salt in our wounds!