Globally, the automotive future is looking increasingly electric, due to growing regulatory moves, including forthcoming bans on sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, shifting consumer behavior, and ongoing improvements in battery and charging technology. By 2035, the world’s major automotive markets – the United States, European Union, and China – are expected to sell only electric vehicles (EVs), and by 2050, 80 percent of the world’s vehicle sales are expected to be electric. EVs are a critical component of achieving climate neutrality and improving quality of life in cities by reducing air and noise pollution. But how will this trend play out in sub-Saharan Africa? And what are the opportunities and challenges associated with the region’s electric transport future?
In a new report, Power to move: Accelerating the electric transport transition in sub-Saharan Africa, we explore the readiness of sub-Saharan Africa to participate in the electric mobility transition.
Transport currently makes up 10 percent of Africa’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which is likely to increase in line with sub-Saharan Africa’s expanding vehicle parc – the total stock of vehicles on the road. In the six countries that make up around 70 percent of sub-Saharan Africa’s annual vehicle sales and 45 percent of the region’s population (Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Rwanda, and Uganda), the vehicle parc is expected to grow from 25 million vehicles today to an estimated 58 million by 2040, driven by urbanization and rising incomes. As its vehicle parc grows, the challenge for sub-Saharan Africa will be to push for more sustainable mobility.