The world is treading a perilous path—one marked by stark inequalities, muted global accountability, and a succession of power struggles that all too often leave the vulnerable in the dust. At the heart of these dynamics is a disturbing truth: the rich and powerful increasingly act with impunity, shaping rules to their advantage while the poor bear the brunt of policies and conflicts from which they have no say. Institutions once seen as beacons of global governance, such as the United Nations, struggle to assert relevance or enforce meaningful change. Meanwhile, a dangerous complacency has settled into international responses to crises—exemplified most glaringly by the world’s near-silence on Israel’s tightening grip on Gaza despite widespread condemnation in diplomatic statements. Simultaneously, many African leaders wrestle with legacies of Western influence as they navigate fragile power balances amidst rising nationalism and internal challenges.
This mounting global imbalance demands urgent reflection and action. It exposes how entrenched inequalities enable the powerful to ignore facts inconvenient to them, consolidating control at the expense of justice, dignity, and human rights.
Israel’s plan to fully control Gaza provides a sobering illustration. For decades, the Gaza Strip has been a focal point of suffering fueled by blockade, military operations, and humanitarian crises. Israel’s recent decisions to exert complete control provoke sharp international concern—and yet, the world largely limits itself to measured statements condemning what many see as disproportionate actions. This restrained reaction contrasts sharply with the magnitude of Gaza’s humanitarian toll, reflecting the persistent double standards shaped by geopolitics. Countries fearful of diplomatic fallout shy away from decisive measures, tacitly enabling continued suffering and obstruction of Palestinian self-determination.
This fragmented global response highlights the shortcomings of international governance—particularly the United Nations. The UN, once envisioned as the cornerstone of collective security and human rights enforcement, appears increasingly sidelined. Political cleavages among powerful member states diminish its efficacy, reducing it to little more than a forum for rhetoric rather than resolution. Reports and mandates multiply, but action lags, and humanitarian crises worsen. The UN’s inability to catalyze meaningful intervention or reform undermines faith in multilateralism itself, fueling cynicism and fractured diplomacy.
Simultaneously, extreme disparities between rich and poor deepen globally. The economic and political elites craft systems that preserve their advantage—free from oversight or accountability—while marginalized populations face shrinking opportunities and heightened vulnerabilities. A growing number of voices warn that this bifurcation risks inflaming social unrest and eroding democratic norms. Yet, structural inertia and the profitable nature of inequality impede efforts to enforce systemic change.
African leaders, meanwhile, confront their own intricate challenges amid this global malaise. Many governments grapple with internal power struggles shaped by a complex mix of lingering Western influence, local dynamics, and emerging regional ambitions. Some leaders approach engagement with Western nations with skepticism, wary of neo-colonial overtones and conditional aid. Others find themselves entangled in reproducing cycles of power concentration that mirror those in more developed contexts. This complex landscape underscores that Africa’s political evolution is not isolated but intertwined with global trends of power, competition, and realpolitik.
The combined picture is clear: the world is at a crossroads where the facts on the ground—whether geopolitical, humanitarian, or economic—cannot be willfully ignored without grave consequences. The failure to hold the powerful accountable, to reinvigorate institutions like the UN, and to genuinely address inequalities nurtures a dangerous trajectory where injustice becomes normalized and crises perpetuated. For global stability and dignity, it is imperative that this pattern be challenged.
What can be done? First, international institutions must be reformed to assert authority impartially and decisively. The UN’s credibility depends on transcending parochial interests and enforcing universally agreed principles, rather than tolerating impunity. Secondly, accountability must extend beyond diplomacy to tangible consequences for violations—balancing pragmatic engagement with principled stands. Thirdly, inequalities must be addressed through structural reforms that empower marginalized people economically, politically, and socially, ensuring that wealth and power do not automatically translate into unchecked influence.
Africa’s path forward requires visionary leadership steeped in sovereignty and inclusivity, coupled with cooperation that respects local contexts while engaging constructively with global realities. Such leadership can dismantle exploitative dynamics and foster genuine partnerships that prioritize people over power.
In this fraught moment, ignoring uncomfortable facts about inequality, institutional impotence, and unchecked aggression only accelerates the descent into instability and suffering. The urgent task for governments, civil society, and citizens worldwide is to forge a new paradigm—one that centers justice, equality, and accountability at its core. Without this commitment, the dangerous path we are on promises far-reaching consequences for generations to come.
The global aviation industry is often seen as a barometer of economic interconnectedness and growth potential, but nowhere are its challenges and opportunities as pronounced as in Africa. At the 81st International Air Transport Association (IATA) Annual General Meeting and World Air Transport Summit in New Delhi, India, Marie Owens Thomsen—Senior Vice President Sustainability & Chief Economist of IATA—sat down with Capital’s Groum Abate to dissect Africa’s prospects for air transport, sustainable growth, and economic integration. Excerpts;
Capital: You mentioned that Africa has a wide profit margin per passenger, and the profit forecast for the region looks promising. What is the reason behind this?
Marie Owens Thomsen: That’s certainly better than having a negative outlook, which is a positive sign. However, African airlines aren’t as profitable as those in other regions. To understand this, we need to examine the market structure and the regulatory framework. As we discussed yesterday, fragmentation is a key issue. By fragmentation, I mean the tendency for countries or organizations to establish their own rules within this global market. The airline industry is one of the few sectors that is as globally interconnected as the internet. To make this global market function effectively, we need harmonized regulations where all players adhere to the same standards. This was the original intent of the Chicago Convention when civil aviation was established.
The Chicago Convention was signed by its founding countries in 1944, during a time of war. Those leaders recognized that a global airline industry could foster peace and prosperity. They understood that for this global market to succeed, we needed uniform rules and harmonization. Yet, almost immediately after signing the Convention, countries began to introduce their own regulations, leading to fragmentation.
For example, Africa pays, on average, 20% more for jet fuel than other regions. While I understand that African countries need to generate fiscal revenue despite a limited tax base, taxing jet fuel and complicating the distribution system for airlines puts them at a disadvantage compared to their global counterparts. This hinders the potential economic growth that air transportation can facilitate.
Additionally, visa requirements within Africa make it difficult for travelers from other African nations to move freely. This is another form of fragmentation. Every country-level rule and regulation further complicates the market and stifles growth. Furthermore, the quality of infrastructure—both the number and condition of airports, as well as bureaucratic processes for certifications and permits—is often more complex and fragmented in Africa than in other regions.
Capital: Does this also affect the growth of traffic?
Marie: Absolutely. If you look at how Africa trades with itself and with other countries, it’s important to note that Africa has the world’s largest trade union. That’s impressive. However, Africa only trades about 14% of its total trade with itself, while most of its trade is with Europe and Asia. The connectivity between Africa and those regions is significantly better than intra-African connectivity, which is quite concerning.
I don’t believe Africa will fully benefit from the trade union unless it creates a more harmonized intra-African air transportation market. I once spoke with someone from the African Union who said they would first increase trade numbers before developing air transportation. I argued that if that were true, the trade numbers would already reflect that progress. The fact that trade numbers have not changed indicates there is another underlying issue, which I believe is intra-African connectivity. This issue extends beyond airlines; it also affects roads, railways, and ports. We know that landlocked countries in central Africa are among the poorest in the world, and they share a common problem: a lack of connectivity. Without roads, railways, ports, and air travel, they struggle to grow.
Another example is North and South Korea, which provides a rare economic control group for comparison. At one point, they were the same, but one half chose to connect with the rest of the world while the other remained isolated.
The stark economic consequences of these policies are now evident.
The energy transition presents a unique opportunity for Africa to fulfill its potential in terms of land, resources, and human capital. By engaging in the energy transition, Africa can improve soil health, enhance agricultural industries, and grow the energy sector. Producing fuel for aviation also leads to increased fuel production for other sectors. Currently, only 8% of output from oil refineries worldwide is jet fuel. By addressing the needs of airlines, 90% of the benefits can flow to other areas of the economy.
Governments need to adopt this mindset to realize the growth multiplier effect of these developments and support the industry.
Unfortunately, there is often a tendency to hinder progress as soon as profits begin to materialize. The temptation to impose taxes can stifle growth. As a result, Africa still represents only 2% of global air traffic, and that figure hasn’t changed. Meanwhile, countries like China and India are experiencing significant growth.
Africa’s situation is more complex because it is not a single country. Unlike China and India, which benefit from a unified regulatory system, Africa requires the cooperation of many countries to achieve similar goals. This complexity is well understood, especially from a European perspective.
We admire Ethiopia for its success in handling a significant amount of transit traffic through its airport. This achievement highlights both the potential of African airports and the fact that only one airport currently serves as a hub for the continent. This situation underscores the challenges that have prevented the establishment of additional hubs elsewhere in Africa.
Ethiopia’s model is one that other countries should emulate. We would also like to see increased production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in Africa, particularly in Ethiopia. Among African nations, Ethiopia seems to recognize best the potential of air transportation for economic development.
Capital: Are you optimistic that SAF production will be available in Africa within the next three years?
Marie: Yes, I am optimistic. For example, I recently spoke with the Vice Minister for Transportation from Zimbabwe, who mentioned that Zimbabwe is cultivating energy crops that cannot be used for food. These crops can grow on less-than-ideal soil, and by planting them, the soil quality can improve over time, eventually allowing for food production. Their plan is to use these energy crops to produce SAF.
This approach not only enhances soil quality but also advances agriculture and energy development for the entire economy. While I’m not sure how far they have progressed with this initiative, it represents the promise of an energy transition. No other economic policy today offers the same potential for transforming the economy and reducing Africa’s reliance on external sources.
Capital: What if Africa fails to produce its own SAF in the next 20 years?
Marie: That would be detrimental for everyone, as we are all interdependent in this global industry. The success of Africa is crucial for the rest of the world, especially since Europe and the U.S. cannot produce enough SAF to meet global demand. We need other continents to engage in this effort.
It’s difficult for me to dictate what wealthy nations should do, but I believe that mature economies should actively support and promote the development of industries like SAF production in regions such as Africa.
Capital: Importing SAF requires a clear definition of its intended use. If they fail to meet these requirements, do they have to import SAF?
Marie: No, they don’t have to. We have established a SAF registry through the Civil Aviation Decarbonization Organization, known as CEDO, which was launched by Ayatah. IATA’s IT and Data Division developed the platform for this registry. Airlines create accounts in the registry and receive documentation detailing the specific SAF they have purchased. They can then use this documentation to meet their obligations under schemes like CORSIA or EU RED. Additionally, airlines can transfer the environmental attributes to business customers—large companies that frequently fly and wish to account for their Scope 3 emissions.
This process can now be conducted in an orderly manner. If the world accepts the book-and-claim principle, the physical location of the product becomes irrelevant. For example, an African airline can purchase SAF in Singapore and claim it in the SAF registry, even if Singapore Airlines transports the actual fuel.
The atmosphere doesn’t care who burns the fuel; it only matters that someone buys it and someone else flies it, and these do not have to be the same airline.
Capital: Your report also mentioned the impact of aircraft delivery delays. How might this affect African airlines?
Marie: It could have severe consequences for Africa. While the rest of the world struggles to acquire new aircraft, they are left with older models that require more maintenance.
Maintaining these older aircraft is costlier, and they are often more expensive to purchase if available at all. Moreover, Africa lacks sufficient maintenance centers and capabilities, complicating matters further for African airlines.
What we need in Africa is significant investment in airports, maintenance facilities, aircraft, and the administrative processes and certification capabilities necessary to support a global industry. This might sound overwhelming, but the positive outcome is that not only does this industry grow, but it also enables growth in other sectors.
Quantifying this economic impact is challenging. We know that global air transportation contributes about 4% to GDP, but it’s difficult to estimate the additional growth generated by other industries leveraging our services.
So, while I can only speculate, it seems there are very few industries with a comparable multiplier effect.
We understand that the differences in air transportation accessibility may be less pronounced in Africa, where fewer people have access to flights. However, in more developed countries, the impact of COVID-19 clearly demonstrated how the world economy suffers when air travel ceases. I admire the mindset of the Indian government, which has chosen to leverage air transportation as a means of fostering economic development. I hope more African nations adopt a similar perspective.
Capital: How do you envision African airlines in the next five years?
Marie: I believe they will survive. Naturally, I am an optimist and cannot envision a scenario in which they do not. However, the same challenges persist. We need peace; war and conflict zones severely hinder connectivity. Additionally, we require sound economic policies and capable bureaucracies, which necessitate an educated workforce. Crucially, there must be a conviction at the highest levels of government that air transportation is a vital strategy for economic development.
In conversations with political leaders in Africa, I often sense that they view air transportation as a luxury good. Yet, it only remains so if we allow it to. If we aim to make it a public good as part of an economic development strategy, that choice is within our reach. Treating air transportation as a luxury is a shortsighted policy. Instead, we should ask ourselves how to implement the most effective economic policies to enhance the welfare of the entire population. Clearly, air transportation, along with the energy transition, represents two avenues for significant transformation.
This is the radical change we all wish to see in Africa. Ethiopia stands out as a leader in this regard, and we commend your airline and your country for achieving so much under challenging circumstances. This success deserves immense respect. We look forward to continuing our support for initiatives in your country and across the continent.
Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) has announced plans to raise a 76 billion birr loan from domestic sources to help cover a significant budget shortfall during the 2025/26 fiscal year. This financing move is part of implementing EEP’s large budget of 251 billion birr, with the majority earmarked for capital projects.
Ashebir Balcha, CEO of EEP, stated that of the total 251 billion birr budget, 178 billion birr (71%) is dedicated to capital expenditures, including ongoing projects (118 billion birr), newly launched initiatives (29 billion birr), reconstruction works (10.4 billion birr), plus spare parts and repair costs.
EEP expects to generate about 420 billion birr in revenue during the fiscal year, from domestic energy sales and export earnings—approximately $138 million. However, this income does not fully cover the financial needs of the enterprise. To bridge the gap, EEP plans to use a mix of its own income, loans from the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, domestic borrowing, and foreign financial support.
The budget breakdown includes 138 billion birr from internal financing, 76 billion birr through domestic loans, 12 billion birr from foreign loans, 22 billion birr via external financing support, and an additional 3 billion birr from the Ministry of Finance and other sources.
In the preceding fiscal year (2024/25), EEP generated 74.05 billion birr in revenue, with power sales accounting for 1.41 billion birr. From a total of 25,180 gigawatt-hours sold, 93% served domestic consumption, and 7% was exported to neighboring countries including Kenya and Djibouti.
Ashebir emphasized that the decision to secure a sizeable domestic loan reflects the government’s dedication to developing the power sector using local financial resources. Successful management of this funding will be critical to completing planned projects and ensuring energy security, which in turn supports Ethiopia’s broader economic growth ambitions.
The African Fine Coffees Association (AFCA) is set to convene its 22nd African Good Coffees Summit and Exhibition from February 6 to 8, 2026, at the Addis International Convention Center in Ethiopia, widely regarded as the birthplace of Arabica coffee. The summit will serve as a critical forum to tackle pressing issues hindering Africa from fully capitalizing on its rich coffee heritage.
Industry leaders attending the summit note that, despite providing some of the highest quality coffee to global markets, many African producers are not benefiting equitably from the vast profits generated along the coffee value chain. The Ethiopian Coffee Association underscored that “our producers are far from the advantage of the last cup,” highlighting the significant discrepancy between international coffee prices and the returns earned by farmers.
A central theme emerging from conference discussions is the low added value within the African coffee sector. Most coffee is exported as raw beans, leaving producers largely excluded from lucrative activities such as processing, roasting, and branding. Additionally, African coffees often lack strong, distinctive brands capable of commanding premium prices worldwide. Producers also face challenges from inconsistent production levels and reliance on outdated processing techniques, which further limit income potential.
To address these problems, the summit will focus on enhancing market access, building climate change resilience, and boosting intra-African trade. AFCA, in collaboration with the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority, is urging all stakeholders—from farmers and exporters to policymakers—to unite in creating a more sustainable, inclusive, and profitable African coffee industry.
By fostering cooperation, knowledge exchange, and investment, the summit aims to transform Africa’s coffee sector “from promising to prosperous.”
