We regard the invention of drones as one of the most potent anti symmetric weapon systems ever designed by modern man. Admittedly, this is a sweeping statement, especially coming from a column that is not known for exaggeration. We will attempt an explication!
Way back then, the invention of the gun, which utilized gunpowder, was a quantum leap in the sphere of weaponry. For centuries, gunpowder remained the fountainhead of all arsenals. The various weapons that were based on gunpowder rendered the spear or the bow and arrow or the sword and shield, absolutely impotent. Moreover, unlike the old weapons the new concoctions based on gunpowder did not require ‘Spartan physicals’ for their effective utilization. In the olden days it was brute force generated by human muscle that was always in play. When the Chinese gunpowder was transformed from its traditional peaceful use to the realm of destruction, geopolitics changed irreversibly! The claim is; it was the Mongols who introduced gunpowder to Europe. Such quantum change or significant leap, we prefer calling ‘anti-symmetric’! We like this phrase because it conveys a significant departure from the established or even the expected.
Just like the bullet (propelled by the explosion of gunpowder in the brass shell) rendered the muscle weapons useless, drones are rapidly and effectively replacing many of the old arsenals. Granted, drones are, by and large, delivery vehicles. Yet, their effectiveness, not only in the delivery of various weapons, but also in physical confrontation makes them special. These and other features warrant the name anti-systemic! AI (Artificial Intelligence) piloted drones can fight with their own spears, swords and shields or bows and arrows. We can assure you even the old Roman gladiators won’t have a fighting chance against this modern monsters! At the same time, drones can be invaluable in surveillance. They can be programmed to follow an individual anywhere in the world. By targeting a specific ‘sim card’ or a ‘biometric data’, drones can deliver a serious blow to their target! A bullet’s trajectory is always a ‘line-of-sight’. A drone can do all kinds of maneuverings, including U-turns. No wonder, the old grandeur of ‘marksmanship’, with its gunpowder-propelled bullets, is now only a nostalgic sport of no significance! Drones do not necessarily hug the earth’s surface, at least not to the extent human soldiers do, including pilots of flying objects! When it comes to heights, drones have no narrow bounds like humans. Mark our words; it won’t be long before drones replace most of the (manned) fighter planes in the world!
Unlike we land crawlers drones are truly three-dimensional. In the scheme of planetary things, we are hardly three-dimensional. Even flying creatures (birds, insects, etc.) have their own limitations when it comes to height/altitude. On the other hand, specially designed drones can fly very high, without any damage to their bodily or software-ly constitution. Drones can be made supersonic with significant payload. The Chinese are expected to display their supersonic drones in the coming few days. This is bound to create havoc on old weapons system, like aircraft carriers, etc. As if that is not enough, supersonic drones with nuclear weapons can also be maneuvered remotely to avoid incoming trajectories (read missiles), hence will be illusive. This creation of the Russians has brought back the MAD détente (Mutually Assured Destruction) back to the negotiating table!
Drones’ size can range from very minute to seriously huge. The small ones can be designed to do certain specific things, like mimicking insects (mosquitos, etc.). These small drones can be made to carry and deliver biological/chemical weapons to a specific target without being noticed! The drones used in the attack of the Saudi petroleum plants were neither very large nor complex. Nonetheless, they proved to be effective. Drones are also cost effective, compared to other delivery vehicles, like missiles or fighter planes. Since drones do not have human operators inside them, they can be made cheaply, materially and financially. We believe, ‘use and throw’ drones will be preponderant in future wars.
Protecting targets from drones is not always an easy undertaking. Even the potent anti missile/air defense system of the Russians (Pantsyr-S1, BUK and S-300, S-400) can easily be overwhelmed. One needs plenty of air defense systems to protect every nook and cranny, which of course is an impossibility! Can one control or predict birds’ paths or mosquitos’ or flies’, etc.? It is claimed there were over ten drones that hit the Saudi plant. There might have been even more, probably used as decoys. Since we are not privy to exactly what happened, we cannot say for sure, but our speculation is not farfetched. The dangers drones pose to the world at large is frightening, even to contemplate. A lunatic equipped with a home made/assembled drone, packing various weapons, (chemical, biological, etc.) along with a Google map can create chaos that is beyond the imagination of many a sheeple. Let us hope such happenstances will not come to pass! The multifarious nature of drones is coming to light only now. The Saudi petroleum plant disaster is bound to increase the awareness.
We believe a new mindset is in order. Instead of always seeking domination via confrontation, states/non state actors, particularly those who have the upper hand, must be willing to relinquish their monopoly on the massively organized violence, so that others will not wish to seek it. Humanity must earnestly examine its current situation, from climate change to drones, from unsustainable existence to phony money, etc. We need to go back to the basics and change our ways. We need to avoid evil thinking and evil doings. Drones came around because we continue to obsess about vacuous accumulation, devoid of values.
This was first published in September 2019
DANGEROUS DRONES
Fifty eight exporters to face the long arm of the law
By Muluken Yewondwossen
The Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority (ECTA) has demanded stringent measures be taken against 58 exporters for failing to export coffee and generation of foreign currency thereof, despite receiving a great deal of financial backing. In response, the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) has now ordered all banks to provide a loan and advance audit report of the exporters.
The directive, issued by Frezer Ayalew, Director of the Bank Supervision Directorate at NBE, states that the exporters’ qualification has been suspended, and that the NBE has been requested to take necessary actions against them for misusing loans and advances intended for coffee exports.
The NBE has instructed banks to conduct a detailed loan review assessment of the exporters and to submit the audit report by September 4 at the latest. As indicated, the assessment should include information such as the amount of loans and advances granted, collateral type and amount, loan utilization for the intended purpose, foreign currency generated by outstanding balances, and the loan status of the exporters as of July 31, 2023.
Although the list of affected businesses has not been disclosed, it is reported that prominent companies are among the exporters facing scrutiny. The ECTA letter, issued on August 16 and sent to the NBE, highlights the government’s special support to the sector in accessing finance. While 144 coffee exporters accessed the loans and advances under the special facility, only 37 of them utilized the scheme for their coffee export business. The remaining 58 exporters failed to export coffee, resulting in a lack of generated foreign currency and negative impact on the sector.
As a consequence, the ECTA has suspended the certificates of the exporters who misused the loans. The authority has requested relevant bodies to take similar measures against the listed exporters. In the 2022/23 fiscal year, Ethiopia earned more than USD 1.3 billion from coffee exports, falling short of the planned USD 1.8 billion target.
Coffee is a vital source of hard currency for the country and supports the livelihoods of over 30 million people, contributing significantly to the economy.
500 Billion birr required for metropolitan growth, City Road Authority signals
By Muluken Yewondwossen
The Addis Ababa City Road Authority (AACRA) underscores that for the coming ten year, it needs half a trillion birr to expand the metropolitan road network.
Currently, the city administration is allocating on average over a 10 billion birr every year which has allowed the road authority to handle several projects on its way to improve the infrastructure of the continental hub.
According to Moges Tibebe, Director General of AACRA, the road infrastructure that the city currently oversees is estimated at 247 billion birr.
As Moges indicates, the major share of the city administration budget goes to the capital budget of which the priority share is allocated towards road sector development.
“From the total 140 billion birr for the 2023/24 budget that the Addis Ababa City Administration approved, AACRA secured 11.6 billion birr,” he said.
Addis Ababa is the busiest city in Ethiopia that hosts the major portion of motor mobility and the fast increment of number of vehicles has made the road of the city congested, despite the city administration undertaking several new projects and road upgrades in the past two decades.
In the past few years AACRA’s project handling and project accomplishment has shown significant improvement. For instance, it is constructing the 2.4 billion birr worth, 11 km Qality-Tulu Dimtu road that is at 69 percent completion. The road also serves as the oldest gateway from Ethiopia’s logistics hub Djibouti to the city center.
The overpasses of Lebu, Imperial and Bole Michael which in total cost over 2.1 billion birr are expected to improve the traffic activity in the ring road network, and are other major project examples that are in the final stage for inauguration.
AACRA is also constructing the Bole Qality-Qilinto that includes the longest bridge of 42 meters for the city located at Village 5 around Gelan Gura.
“Totally, we are constructing a 2.3 km long river bridge and over passes that would ease the traffic activity in the city,” Moges said, adding, “The road infrastructure demand is very high in the city that needs to be sorted out which and is our major priority.”
“Currently with the support of the World Bank a transport master plan is being carried out that would allow identification of projects that should get a priority so as to see major improvements on the traffic movement,” he added.
“We are now undertaking a design work for road projects that will be constructed in the coming ten years that are expected to a cost of over 500 billion birr,” the Director General highlighted.
As Moges informed Capital, as per the master plan that was carried out by the World Bank, in the coming ten years USD 9.5 billion is required, that is, over 500 billion birr.
“In terms of birr, the amount would show changes as per inflationary experience that we are observing,” he explained whilst further elaborating, “For instance, in the past less than two years the price of fuel has surged from 23 birr per liter to 76 birr, cement, rebar and bitumen price are also surging so for sure the estimated of half a trillion birr cost will surge in the coming years.”
He reminded that most of project inputs are imported, which is out of control when it comes to managing the cost.
Budget from the city administration, loan, grant and resource from Road Fund are the major sources of funds for the road sector development in the city.
The budget allocation from the city administration is increasing every year. For example, AACRA’s budget this year has increased by almost three billion birr compared with the 2022/23 budget year’s initial budget, which was 8.95 billion birr but has now expanded to 12.4 billion birr from the resource that was allocated on additional budget.
Moges also expected this year budget to have additional funding like the past budget year, “As the initial budget, this year’s budget has set a record high.”
As he explained, since the resource that is needed for the coming ten years is very huge, AACRA is considering public private partnership on selected project sites.
To attain that, the city administration is developing an ultramodern traffic management center at the newly constructed Addis Ababa City Transport Bureau HQ at Megenagna.
“Besides undertaking aggressive road construction, we are also working to optimize the current infrastructures through intelligent transport system that will allow the use of existing roads with modern information systems,” he explained.
As the DG disclosed, in order to introduce an intelligent transport system, the civil works have been accomplished with Hisense, a contractor, on its way to install required technologies at the center and selected corners at a cost of USD 20 million to kick start the intelligent transport system.
According to AACRA’s, which is one of the well performing public office in the city administration, 1,014 km road projects that includes maintenance was carried out in the past budget year that ended July 2023.
Currently, AACRA has 528 projects out of which 54 are asphalt road projects.
Moges said that in the past five years, 82 asphalt road projects have been accomplished, which indicated that the city administration gave sensible attention to the sector development.
As the AACRA head emphasized, sustainable change in the city road is crucial for improvement.
According to the sector experts the sector still needs further effort particularly in allocating huge resources to undertake massive and aggressive expansion in the sector.
In parallel with expanding the road network, the Addis Ababa City Administration is carrying out several initiatives to improve motor mobility in the city including conducting projects to accelerate seamless traffic flow.
According to Moges, one of the ways to make Addis Ababa, a standard city is for the World Bank to provide several supports.
With the support of Word Bank the first drainage master plan is being undertaken, “Similarly, the transport master plan, which is the first at this level, is developed that is a big input for the city’s structural master plan on its revision in the coming four to five years.”
World Bank is also supporting the bus rapid transit strategy study.
Currently, AACRA is also revising the 20 year old, 28 manuals like design manual, specifications and guidelines.
The manual revision is currently being carried out by DarAl-Handasah, a well known international consultant, with the support of World Bank which will improve the road sector development that shall adopt the current international experience.
“In the past, the design manual gave priority to vehicles with the highway concept. Now it has been revised with the consideration of mixed traffic,” the Director General cited, adding, “The revision manual will take in to account non-motorized traffic, mass transportation, and public space and give priority to safety,”
“The international partner is also supporting the 4.5 km road project that stretchs from British Embassy-Haya Hulet-Bole Medhanialem,” Moges added.
The intelligent transport system is also supported by World Bank, while the civil work cost is fully covered by the city administration.
Omo Bank appoints Abraham Alero to steer its ship
By Muluken Yewondwossen
The financial sector supervisory body, National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE), approves the appointment of Abraham Alero as the founding president of Omo Bank, an upgraded microfinance powerhouse. The bank is now underway to move its head quarters to the capital city.
According to the letter that was signed by Frezer Ayalew, Bank Supervision Directorate Director at NBE, and issued on August 25, the go ahead was given to Abraham, to take lead of the bank.
Abraham who is not new to the banking sector previously served as the President of Berhan Bank, having joined as vice president in March 2013, rending a seven years service after which he resigned in November 2021 due to personal reasons.
As the new Omo bank president informed Capital, “I left Berhan bank to get some break and to inspire other up and coming professional.”
“The business and banking leadership have gaps across the country, and through leveraging my past experiences, for almost two years now, I was engaged in consultancy services to upgrade various professionals of multiple institutions. Now, I am back rejuvenated more than ever to take up my new role,” he said.
Abraham who has a Management undergraduate from the Addis Ababa University also leveled up to secure his master’s degree in Developmental Studies from the London South Bank University.
He joined the financial industry courtesy of the financial giant Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) as a junior clerk. His professional career CBE spanned for 14 years to which he served in different levels of capacity including senior managerial positions. Abraham then took his talents to Enat Bank where he became the founding project manager for three years.
As per the NBE proclamation, the assignment of senior executives ought to be approved by the regulatory body.
According to the information that Capital obtained from sources Omo is currently on its way to move its head quarters to Addis Ababa, which is a mandatory as per the NBE law. Currently, its HQ is in Hawassa, 270km south of Addis Ababa.
As it stands, the bank is on the process to officially get a HQ building for future inauguration in the heart of the country.
Omo Bank, previously, Omo Micro Finance Institution was established in 1996 with its name sourced from the prominent river basin found in the south western Ethiopia. The institution went on to service the public mainly in the former SNNP region.
A year ago, the institution secured a green light from NBE to upgrade to a bank which then allowed the financial firm to spread its wings nationwide rather than being limited to the former SNNP region.
As a result, major moves are being made to set its base in Addis Ababa and other regions.
At the current stage it has a paid up capital that has surpassed 2.5 billion birr with 12.3 billion birr in asset.
Currently, the bank is modernizing its core banking software with Oracle FS and its integration through its partnership with Profinch. The bank will implement the Flexcube core banking system as well as new fraud prevention and anti-money laundering (AML) software.
