• 5G could drive up to USD 31 trillion in cumulative consumer revenue in the ICT industry by 2030
• Communications service providers (CSPs) could earn up to USD 3.7 trillion in cumulative 5G-enabled consumer revenues by 2030
• Augmented Reality (AR) could drive more than half of all consumer spending on immersive media by 2030

he 5G consumer market could be worth USD 31 trillion by 2030 globally, according to the new Harnessing the 5G Consumer Potential report from Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) ConsumerLab. The report estimates that communications service providers (CSPs) could earn USD 3.7 trillion of that total – a figure that could increase further as new adjacent digital services opportunities arise.

The report also estimates that CSPs could generate up to USD 131 billion by 2030 from digital service revenues alone, by proactively bundling and marketing 5G use cases. About 40 percent of these revenue projections are attributed to consumer spending on enhanced video, augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR) and cloud gaming over 5G networks. The report projects that AR is likely to drive more than half of all consumer spending on immersive media by 2030 – starting with gaming and extending to other areas like shopping, education and remote collaboration.

Key findings also highlight how the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on personal finances and financial priorities may have affected consumers’ willingness to pay a premium for 5G subscriptions. In early 2019, the average consumer was willing to pay a 20 percent premium for 5G. As 2020 draws to an end, that figure has dropped to 10 percent. However, one in three early adopters globally are still willing to pay a 20 percent premium. Such high levels of early adopter take-up could help drive economic recovery, according to the report.

The report also projects that by proactively driving 5G consumer adoption, CSPs could gain 34 percent higher 5G average revenue per user (ARPU) by 2030. This could boost consumer revenues at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.7 percent compared to flat revenue growth of 0.03 percent by taking a passive approach across the decade.

Jasmeet Singh Sethi, Head of ConsumerLab, Ericsson Research, says: “This is the first time that Ericsson has presented a revenue forecast for the 5G consumer market, which remains the core business of communications service providers. Through our research, we have highlighted the role of use case development, tariff innovation, quality 5G coverage and ecosystem partnerships to unlock the true potential of this market. It is clear that 5G will drive enormous opportunities for CSPs in consumer business over the decade. As this journey is already underway, those CSPs that quickly and proactively evolve their consumer propositions are likely to be bigger winners.”

The report also highlights the enabling role technologies such as edge computing and network slicing will play in helping service providers to secure 5G-enabled consumer revenue. This could come from core digital services like cloud gaming and augmented reality applications, or adjacent digital services, such as in-car connectivity and associated safety features.

A series of contracts in Kenya, South Africa, Madagascar and Benin, among others, highlight Ericsson’s growing footprint in Sub-Saharan Africa as communications service providers move to strengthen their networks and cater to demand for enhanced mobile services.

The momentum reflects the rapid growth of mobile connectivity across the region, as consumer demand for enhanced mobile services continues to grow and forward-thinking communications service providers are already securing their role in this dynamic market.

According to the June edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report, current mobile data traffic in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to grow 12-fold by 2025. Mobile broadband subscriptions are expected to account for 72 percent of all mobile subscriptions in the same year, with LTE subscriptions estimated to triple and top 270 million.

Fadi Pharaon, President of Ericsson Middle East and Africa, says: “Technology brings an unprecedented opportunity to address the challenges of sustainable economic development and improve the livelihood of people in Africa. The latest data shows that Africa is one of the fastest growing mobile markets and reiterates the need for a more efficient technology, higher data rates and availability of ample spectrum. Mobile and fixed networks are key components of critical national infrastructure to sustain and evolve emerging economies during remote work times.

 Expanding footprint in 2020

A slew of recent wins for Ericsson highlight the company’s growing footprint in the region as service providers strengthen their networks to meet growing demand from consumers and enterprises.

Earlier this year, MTN Benin has extended its long-term relationship with Ericsson to provide world-class managed services, including Network Operations Center, Field Services in Radio, Core and Transmission in Benin. Under the agreement, the future capabilities of efficiencies, automation and data will enable MTN Benin and Ericsson to jointly create a world of predictive operations with focus on customer experience, network quality, performance and automation.

In June of this year, Telma Madagascar switched on its 5G commercial network – powered by Ericsson – to offer subscribers high-speed services enabled by the new generation of mobile connectivity.

At the southern tip of the continent, MTN South Africa went live with commercial 5G in Bloemfontein and Port Elizabeth on June 30. Ericsson was announced as an MTN South Africa vendor in November 2019, to deploy products and solutions spanning its radio access network (RAN) Ericsson Radio System, transport and 5G Core network portfolios. Ericsson will also deploy Ericsson Spectrum Sharing

In October 2020, Airtel Africa expanded its strategic partnership with Ericsson to enable 4G coverage in Kenya. With Ericsson’s Radio Access Network (RAN) and packet core products for 4G, Airtel subscribers will experience enhanced quality of voice and data. The network modernization deal, signed in August 2020, is in line with the ‘Kenyan Digital Economy Blueprint Vision 2030’ which aims to provide robust connectivity in rural areas and facilitate e-commerce platforms.

Committed to sustainability

Ericsson has a major focus in supporting sustainability across Africa. In October 2020 it was announced that Ericsson’s IoT Accelerator will power Telenor Connexion’s global connectivity to Wayout’s sustainable water treatment micro-factories starting in East Africa. This will be expanding to the Middle East, Asia Pacific and other markets in 2021.

Wayout has engineered plug-and-play micro-factories for local production of clean, filtered water, with minimal environmental footprint. Powered by solar panels, the micro-factories offer an advanced water purification system.

October 2020 also saw Airtel Zambia announce a partnership with Ericsson on a Product Take-Back programme to minimize the potential environmental impact when disposing of decommissioned electrical equipment. The Product Take-Back programme is part of Ericsson’s sustainability efforts geared towards taking accountability for environmental impacts of all products and services during their lifecycle. The programme ensures that end-of-life material is treated and recycled in an environmentally responsible manner