About a decade ago the idea of encountering a ‘black swan’ was again brought to mainstream discourse by Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s bestseller, the ‘Black Swan’. This time around however, the black swan notion was employed to illuminate unexpected scenarios that can come about from within or from without the human collective. Taleb used an analogy from the old zoologists of the 18th century. At the time, the fixation within the community of ornithologist was; ‘all swans are white’! The intent of Taleb’s ‘Black Swan’s’ was to shake up established routines. As a player in the securities market, his interests were mostly focused on such matters as; survivorship bias, blindness to randomness, fat tails etc.!
Most of the strategies currently employed in the financial markets have innate pitfalls. They have tendencies to follow what others are doing, the ‘herd mentality’. In addition, these models rely on abstruse mathematical derivations with dubious results/values. To start with, mathematics cannot really be trusted in the feeble world of humanity. Yet, econometrics insists that it is better positioned to understand what is going on in the real world of exchanges; commodity, financial, labor, etc. We beg to differ! To those who are befuddled with this, we suggest listening to those who actually know what they are talking about. ‘As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; as far as they are certain they do not refer to reality’ Albert Einstein. The shortcoming of economics is not limited to the excessive utilization analytical methods and brute quantification. On this point Taleb has something to add. ‘Taleb has called for cancellation of the Nobel Prize in Economics, saying that the damage from economic theories can be devastating. He opposes top-down knowledge as an academic illusion.’ To be sure, Alfred Nobel did not bestow a Prize for economics. It was the Bank of Sweden in 1968, who took it on its own, to concoct an annual prize in economics, bearing the name ‘Nobel’. What bankers do to look respectable!
One must clarify the ‘Black Swan’ animal before the establishment completely abuses it, like the above story of ‘Economics Nobel’. For example, the current Covid-19 pandemic is not a black swan event according to Taleb. This is because it has been anticipated by many long before its actual occurrence. Just because the MSM (Main Stream Media) and establishment pundits are not interested in issues, it doesn’t mean things have not been studied or anticipated. For instance, there are plenty of Yemeni children who are currently dying because of the ongoing war of aggression. Yet, the MSM is not interested in covering such cases, while fully engaged in massive propaganda campaigns about all and sundry! There are plenty of laboratories in the world that are fully engaged in the research and production of bio-weaponry. They employ thousands of scientists whose main occupation is to come up with man-made pestilences/WMD. Almost all of these pestilences are intended to do considerable damage to some (ethnic specific) or even all of the human species! So if an incident involving a bioweapon happens, either by accident or by design, can one honestly claim it to be a black swan event? To those familiar with the workings of the existing world order, projects of these nature are a dime a dozen. The new nuclear weapons program of the USA, reinvigorated by the Nobel Peace Prize winning president, Barack Obama, is a case in point. Incidentally and like many other international treaties, the USA has also withdrawn from the bioweapon treaty, which it signed in 1972. Humanity cannot remain naïve to the potential consequences of such ongoing evil projects.
In the business world, white elephants are defined as those capital wasting useless investments or mal-investments. We cite some examples from the real estate industry. There are about 90 million vacant housing units in China all brand new and still waiting for occupancy, in a country that is now undergoing depopulation! There are many brand new ‘ghost cities’ in China that await massive residents who will be eager to engage in the business of family formation. There are about 30 million residential units unused in the USA. Even though many such properties in the world do not earn incomes commensurate with their asset prices or even their initial investment costs, they continue to significantly appreciate in value, albeit vacantly. If these assets are seriously devalued, there might be a top down revolution, this time to be led, paradoxically (don’t laugh) by the upper classes (asset owning classes) of the world system! Even the African cities (Nairobi, etc.,) are full of such white elephants; after all, we Africans do not make our own policies, but only follow, rather blindly, what is ordered by the masters of the world system!
White elephants can easily give rise to white swans, trivially. For example, there is now an impending catastrophe of sand shortage all over the world. It is already studied and is sufficiently anticipated. Can the climax of this disaster be labeled a black swan event? There are plenty of other mal-investments on the planet, primarily caused by the global fiat currency system. The overextended industry of travel and tourism, which is now the largest industry in the world, has become an epitome of mal-investment. From Miami Beach to Mombasa Beach the number of white elephants (hotels, condos, guest houses, airbnb, etc.) are so mindboggling, one might be forced to doze into the world of pink elephants! Since investment capital can be had for a whistle in a fiat system (so long as one is connected), every Tom, Tori and Tinny can become a respected investor, by the measure of crony capitalism, compliment of the bankster-cum-state cabals. The built-in inflation of the global system discourages savings and keeps the sheeple (human mass) pedaling on a fixed bicycle or running on a conveyor belt of real estate investment. What the ongoing depression will bring to inflated asset prices (everything bubble; such as the global real estate, securities, etc.), is something that remains to be seen. ‘By a continuing process of inflation, the governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.’ John Maynard Keynes. Good Day!
WHITE SWANS & WHITE ELEPHANTS
Ministry of Education set temporary timetable for classes, exam
The Ministry of Education set a temporary schedule for National University Entrance Exam of grade 12 to July 14-17. According to a notice posted on all sub cities of the City Administration, the ministry has programmed the schedule hoping that normal classes would resume by June 7, 2020.
On March 16, 2020 Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered to close all schools across the country and for university students to remain where they are deterring mobility for two weeks for fear that the virus will spread.
And on March 27, 2020 the government decides to extend the closure for two more weeks and students from higher education to go back to their home, while the duration of school closures remains uncertain.
Although, the ministry has set the schedule hoping that the government could contain the spread of the virus as soon as possible. For grade 1- 11, the ministry has scheduled to start school before May 17 and to continue up to the end of June. The ministry has differentiated different subjects which should be focused to all grade starting from grade one up to grade 12 to finish the academic year as soon as possible.
At the beginning of current academic year the ministry was planning to conduct the national entrance exam from June 1 up to June 3. Moreover the printing of exam materials, which is done at Berhanena Selam Printing Enterprise, is still put on hold.
According to Zelalem Mulatu, Addis Ababa Education Bureau Head, the plan may not be feasible unless the government removed the state of emergency and control the spread of the virus.
Ethiopia has around 20 million pupils in Ethiopian schools and nearly a million in the 50 public universities and more than 250 private academic institutions, all of which represent high potential transmission sites.
The Ministry also announced that private schools should keep paying their employees and also negotiate with parents of students on reduced tuition fees.
As the ministry suggested private schools should cooperate with parents in different options including giving time to parents who can’t afford to pay the monthly payment on time because of Covid 19 and to cancel for those who can’t afford at all; however schools should not stop paying monthly fee to their employees.
Ministry of Education has announced that parents of private school students should only pay 75 to 50 percent of their monthly payment.
The Ministry of Science and Higher Education that is responsible for Universities across the country announced that it is considering making instructional materials available online for students.
Dechasa Gurme, Communication director of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education said “if things get back to normal and if the government announces that students can go back to their schools in the coming one month, students may go to their particular university but if this cannot happen, students may be obliged to start their education in the coming year.”
Ministry of Science and Higher Education and ethio telecom are working to start giving online educational courses to postgraduate students without internet charge.
Ethiopian Embassy in Djibouti helping Ethiopians in need
Ethiopian Embassy in Djibouti announced that it is providing direct support for needy Ethiopian community to alleviate the challenges they face due to COVID 19.
The Embassy told Capital that it has mobilized finance from staffs at the mission and other sources to provide support for those in need.
Abdulaziz Mohammed, Ethiopia’s Ambassador to Djibouti, said since the outbreak was announced in Djibouti the embassy was engaged on awareness creation in different platform for the Ethiopian community based in the country.
“Besides that we have been working with different organization here (in Djibouti) to keep the safety of Ethiopian drivers who transport cargo from and to Djibouti, which is the main sea outlet for Ethiopia,” Abdulaziz told Capital.
To control the outbreak the government of Djibouti has lockdown the country that made Ethiopians; most of them are living in very poor condition, vulnerable. “To tackle the challenges on Ethiopian community we have been engaged on mobilizing finance from Ethiopians based in Djibouti and organizations to provide support,” the Ambassador says, adding “the mobilization also targeted the call from Ethiopian government to participate the Ethiopian community in the world to support the country to solve the same problem in Ethiopia.”
So far 4,000 Ethiopian community members are getting support via the embassy in two ways; direct cooked meal for those who are living at the street and monthly food rations for those that resides in shelters.
“We are working tirelessly to address those who need support,” Abdulaziz said. The support is delivered in seven sub cities, and different areas in Djibouti city like Balbala, Arhiba and PK 12.
Ambassador Abdulaziz appreciated the effort of the Ethiopian community that are giving priority for the situation than their works and engaged on the activity to support those who need support.
Djibouti is a corridor for illegal Ethiopian migrants that transfer to the Gulf nations.
The embassy in Djibouti said that that it is working with IOM to return migrants based on their willingness.
Abdulaziz said that there is no forced measure by the government of Djibouti to return Ethiopian migrants and refugees particularly in relation with coronavirus.
“Regarding the port service everything is going smoothly as the past,” he concluded.
Logistics company starts intermodal operation
MACCFA Freight Logistics announced that it will accelerate the intermodal operation it started recently as it has managed to import its third shipment this week under a new solution in a month’s time.
The company, which is one of the major logistics operators in the country, concluded the first intermodal solution few weeks back.
The first scheme end to end logistics service provided for Unilever Ethiopia is that the utilization of a full block train arrangement from Djibouti containers terminal (SGTD) to the Indode Railway station yard, located at the southeast outskirt of Addis Ababa.
The modern electric railway that connects the central part of Ethiopia with ports in Djibouti is operational for about two years, while mostly Ethiopian Shipping and Logistics Services Enterprise (ESLSE) is using the facility to transport cargos via the line to the dry port at Mojo, which is the facility that provides for multimodal operation that is a monopoly for ESLSE.
The line is also to some extent transporting bulk cargos like wheat and fertilizer that is mostly transported by the stated owned ESLSE.
Experts said that due to the stated reason above the private freight forwarders could not use the intermodal solution and transport cargos at Mojo.
Until recently most of the private logistics firms are using the railway system for export sector like products from industry parks.
Since Indode has become operational the private sector, who is uni-modal operator, has got a chance to transport cargos in the central Ethiopia by using the railway system under the intermodal scheme, which required to transport at least massive containerized cargos since the movers are leasing the full space at the railway. 
“Indode was available in the intermodal scheme and you have to fully contract the train and need to have at least 100 containers cargo at a time due to that the private sector activity in the modality is very limited,” Mulugeta Assefa, CEO of MACCFA said, “because of that you have to mobilize the cargos to transport at once.”
In these recent weeks very few companies developed their capacity and launch the scheme.
“Now we organized the volume and commence the transportation under intermodal solution, which allowed us to cease using trucks and transport huge amount of cargo at a time by rail,” the CEO said.
He added that the station yard at Indode Station is very small and due to that the cargo should relocate at the final destination within three days.
That means it should have mobilized ample trucks to transport the cargos from the yard after the accomplishment of customs clearing shortly.
Under intermodal solution MACCFA has achieved its third shipment on Thursday April 23.
“According to our plan we will undertake similar intermodal operation on a weekly base,” he added. 
Besides eco friendly benefit since the rail is electric, the intermodal operation has a benefit to cut the number of trucks assigned to transport containers that the process may take couple of weeks to deliver at the customer yard.
The intermodal operation only takes a maximum of four days, according to experts. At the same time the trucks will be idle since they are engaged on the internal distribution.
“In terms of security regarding theft and safety such kind of scheme has best value,” Mulugeta said.
“Even though the service is undertaken by MACCFA, who has partnership with the French logistics giant CMA CGM, the French company is one of the source for the volume,” the CEO said.
MACCFA signed a memorandum of understanding with CMA CGM, owned by CEVA Logistics, for the foreign company to take 49 percent stake from MACCFA.
Freighters International and CLS Logistics Services are the other two freight forwarding companies engaged on the intermodal operation so far.
Intermodal transportation is the use of two or more modes, or carriers, to transport goods (freight) from shipper to consignee.
