What are the telling signs of demise that awaits uni-polarity? We are using the words polarity, uni-polarity, bipolarity and multi-polarity to describe the ongoing flux in structural geopolitics. The unsustainable extraction of non-renewable resources and the saturation of natural sinks on the blue planet might well hasten the collapse of the existing world system, which is nothing more than a frivolous social construct aggressively enforced by empire and headed by its reigning hegemon-the USA! Be that as it may, the scenario associated with the realignment of geopolitical positions due to many factors, the least of which is not the scarcity of resources, will be our preoccupation of the day. After the demise of the USSR, bipolarity was replaced by uni-polarity. We can look at the current status of uni-polarity from two different perspectives. Internally, from the point of view of empire, and externally, from the perspective of the outliers, if we can call them that!
The telltale signs from the outside include all sorts of challenges emanating from the continuous activities of emerging states. Increased dissatisfaction about the whole lopsided global arrangement in the non-core countries mostly affecting the downtrodden sheeple (human mass) is another of the major signs. In addition, the unsustainability as well as the crony-ness of the prevailing global economic order keeps fueling insecurity all over the world. Amidst all these, the clear failure of the current hegemon to inspire and forge a more sustainable mode of collective human existence is accelerating the pace of systemic collapse. Almost all empires disintegrate as a result of hubris. Overreach is one of the Achilles heel’s of empires; past and present. See Smith’s article next column. By and large, it is the built-in rigidities of empires that almost always underlie their demise. To adapt to changing circumstances is something empires were and still are, incapable of doing, despite wealth of accumulated knowledge to show the way out! By empire, it is usually meant the powerful triad: USA, EU and Japan.
The signs that are coming out from within are; political apathy with respect to establishment institutions (political parties, state institutions, etc.) A restless and increasingly inquisitive populace, demanding radical alternatives in all spheres of collective existence, is another sure sign of disintegration. The ‘Yellow Vests’ movement in France might well be a precursor of such bold initiatives. Various internal conflicts amongst the citizenry, mainly due to excessive economic polarization that keeps on marginalizing the large majority of the sheeple, are another of the telltale signs. Depending on the chosen strategy of conflict management (by the power that be), conditions can easily get ugly and society might degenerate to a point of no return. In this regard, identity politics comes to mind. Always finding easy scapegoats to debilitating and disfranchising socio-economic conditions has always been the forte of dominant interests (in any system through out the ages) and the modern world system is no exception! Recent scapegoats include; Jews, blacks, communists, refugees, Moslems, etc., etc.! The emergence of a well-entrenched ‘deep state’ that operates outside of the law is usually a manifestation of desperation heralding decline. To recall, we have defined the deep state as: the military-intelligence-industrial-banking-media-complex of the powerful states.
Multipolarity is now pushing forward, despite the efforts of the ‘deep state’ of empire, particularly that of the hegemon. Trying to arrest efforts that are consciously propelling alternative globalizations might prove fatal to the existing unipolarity. In fact, the project of malicious manipulation undertaken by entrenched interests via their ‘deep states’ is undermining democracy and good governance in the core countries themselves. The bickering in Washington D. C., the refusal by all signatories (save the US) to abrogate the joint Iranian anti-nuclear weapon agreement, the reluctance on the part of the European countries to join the oil sanction imposed on Iran (unilaterally by the US), surprising threat to withhold intelligence from former allies if they endorse China’s 5G initiative, etc., etc., are all forerunners of impending collapse. See the articles next column, on page 32,40 & 42.
On the other hand, the BRI (Belt Road Initiative) is gradually solidifying support for a more equitable globalization. It is expected to win the hearts and minds of a good portion of humanity. So far over 70 countries have agreed to become part of the Chinese initiated BRI, including prominent European Union countries like Italy! The emergent Eurasia Economic Union (EEU) will be, without a doubt the largest economic unit on our planet, encompassing Europe and Asia, to say nothing about Africa. SCO (Shanghai Cooperative Organization) is another formidable ensemble of rising/populous nations who seem to be determined to keeping their relative independence, particularly from the heavy-handedness of empire and its increasingly wobbly hegemon. Eurasia might well become the core of the forthcoming globalization, which necessarily has to be peaceful, sustainable, egalitarian and democratic, to secure long-term support from the planet’s inhabitants!
It seems the ascending multipolarity will be led primarily by China and Russia. The old civilizations of China and Russia seem to be more suited for the task at hand. Based on historical analysis, geographical locations, aspirational outlooks and proven temperance that has been more accommodating than any witnessed by the empires of west (at least the recent ones), these two continent size nations might well be the right choice to collectively lead the coming (it is hoped) sapient globalization. We will not dwell on the reasons why the other BRICS or others, might not be fit for the position of leadership, since we have already elaborated this particular issue on our previous installments. Suffice is to say, the new world order is promising to be one that is essentially based on cooperation rather than confrontation. It is also hoped that it would be one where the rule of law, rather than the rule of power prevails! “I believe that either Russia will be sovereign, or there will be no Russia at all. And, of course, the Russian people will always opt for the first. I think the Chinese people will too. We have no other option,” Vladimir Putin. Good Day!